Recent forecasts from European and global models, including ECMWF and GFS runs, indicate Munich will experience peak temperatures of 34–35°C on August 3 under predominantly sunny conditions with light winds and possible late-day showers. This near-term consensus, supported by observed warming trends from late-July heat advection, underpins the tight market spread between 35°C (35.0%) and 34°C (32.0%). Differentiation among outcomes hinges on small variations in cloud timing, boundary-layer mixing, and urban heat effects, which can shift daily maxima by 1–2°C across ensemble members. Historical August climatology shows typical highs near 24–25°C, making this episode an above-average event driven by persistent high pressure. Updated model guidance expected within 24 hours could refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Munich on August 3?
Highest temperature in Munich on August 3?
35°C 36%
34°C 32%
36°C 19%
33°C 12%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 3, 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
2%
30°C
2%
31°C
2%
32°C
5%
33°C
12%
34°C
32%
35°C
36%
36°C
19%
37°C or higher
4%
35°C 36%
34°C 32%
36°C 19%
33°C 12%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 3, 2026
27°C or below
$400 Обс.
<1%
28°C
$0 Обс.
<1%
29°C
$10 Обс.
2%
30°C
$5 Обс.
2%
31°C
$0 Обс.
2%
32°C
$0 Обс.
5%
33°C
$0 Обс.
12%
34°C
$11 Обс.
32%
35°C
$59 Обс.
36%
36°C
$20 Обс.
19%
37°C or higher
$0 Обс.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from European and global models, including ECMWF and GFS runs, indicate Munich will experience peak temperatures of 34–35°C on August 3 under predominantly sunny conditions with light winds and possible late-day showers. This near-term consensus, supported by observed warming trends from late-July heat advection, underpins the tight market spread between 35°C (35.0%) and 34°C (32.0%). Differentiation among outcomes hinges on small variations in cloud timing, boundary-layer mixing, and urban heat effects, which can shift daily maxima by 1–2°C across ensemble members. Historical August climatology shows typical highs near 24–25°C, making this episode an above-average event driven by persistent high pressure. Updated model guidance expected within 24 hours could refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Обсяг
$505Дата завершення
Aug 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from European and global models, including ECMWF and GFS runs, indicate Munich will experience peak temperatures of 34–35°C on August 3 under predominantly sunny conditions with light winds and possible late-day showers. This near-term consensus, supported by observed warming trends from late-July heat advection, underpins the tight market spread between 35°C (35.0%) and 34°C (32.0%). Differentiation among outcomes hinges on small variations in cloud timing, boundary-layer mixing, and urban heat effects, which can shift daily maxima by 1–2°C across ensemble members. Historical August climatology shows typical highs near 24–25°C, making this episode an above-average event driven by persistent high pressure. Updated model guidance expected within 24 hours could refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$505Дата завершення
Aug 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from European and global models, including ECMWF and GFS runs, indicate Munich will experience peak temperatures of 34–35°C on August 3 under predominantly sunny conditions with light winds and possible late-day showers. This near-term consensus, supported by observed warming trends from late-July heat advection, underpins the tight market spread between 35°C (35.0%) and 34°C (32.0%). Differentiation among outcomes hinges on small variations in cloud timing, boundary-layer mixing, and urban heat effects, which can shift daily maxima by 1–2°C across ensemble members. Historical August climatology shows typical highs near 24–25°C, making this episode an above-average event driven by persistent high pressure. Updated model guidance expected within 24 hours could refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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