Current short-term forecast guidance from agencies like NIWA and international models points to a mild winter day in Wellington driven by transient high-pressure influence and lighter southerly winds rather than strong cold outbreaks, supporting daily maxima near 15–16 °C. Seasonal outlook data show temperatures most likely near or slightly below the August climatological average of roughly 12–13 °C, yet recent model runs have trended warmer for early August amid emerging El Niño conditions that can modulate regional flow patterns. Resolution hinges on the official MetService or equivalent maximum temperature reading, with traders balancing ensemble spread that still allows for cooler 14 °C outcomes if stronger southerlies develop. Upcoming model updates and the 48-hour forecast window will refine these probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Wellington on August 3?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 3?
15°C 41%
16°C 41%
14°C 11%
17°C 10%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 3, 2026
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
2%
14°C
11%
15°C
41%
16°C
41%
17°C
10%
18°C
2%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
15°C 41%
16°C 41%
14°C 11%
17°C 10%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 3, 2026
10°C or below
$371 Обс.
<1%
11°C
$58 Обс.
<1%
12°C
$148 Обс.
1%
13°C
$35 Обс.
2%
14°C
$153 Обс.
11%
15°C
$166 Обс.
41%
16°C
$148 Обс.
41%
17°C
$169 Обс.
10%
18°C
$0 Обс.
2%
19°C
$52 Обс.
<1%
20°C or higher
$0 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-term forecast guidance from agencies like NIWA and international models points to a mild winter day in Wellington driven by transient high-pressure influence and lighter southerly winds rather than strong cold outbreaks, supporting daily maxima near 15–16 °C. Seasonal outlook data show temperatures most likely near or slightly below the August climatological average of roughly 12–13 °C, yet recent model runs have trended warmer for early August amid emerging El Niño conditions that can modulate regional flow patterns. Resolution hinges on the official MetService or equivalent maximum temperature reading, with traders balancing ensemble spread that still allows for cooler 14 °C outcomes if stronger southerlies develop. Upcoming model updates and the 48-hour forecast window will refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 1, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Обсяг
$1,299Дата завершення
Aug 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 1, 2026, 12:02 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-term forecast guidance from agencies like NIWA and international models points to a mild winter day in Wellington driven by transient high-pressure influence and lighter southerly winds rather than strong cold outbreaks, supporting daily maxima near 15–16 °C. Seasonal outlook data show temperatures most likely near or slightly below the August climatological average of roughly 12–13 °C, yet recent model runs have trended warmer for early August amid emerging El Niño conditions that can modulate regional flow patterns. Resolution hinges on the official MetService or equivalent maximum temperature reading, with traders balancing ensemble spread that still allows for cooler 14 °C outcomes if stronger southerlies develop. Upcoming model updates and the 48-hour forecast window will refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$1,299Дата завершення
Aug 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 1, 2026, 12:02 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current short-term forecast guidance from agencies like NIWA and international models points to a mild winter day in Wellington driven by transient high-pressure influence and lighter southerly winds rather than strong cold outbreaks, supporting daily maxima near 15–16 °C. Seasonal outlook data show temperatures most likely near or slightly below the August climatological average of roughly 12–13 °C, yet recent model runs have trended warmer for early August amid emerging El Niño conditions that can modulate regional flow patterns. Resolution hinges on the official MetService or equivalent maximum temperature reading, with traders balancing ensemble spread that still allows for cooler 14 °C outcomes if stronger southerlies develop. Upcoming model updates and the 48-hour forecast window will refine these probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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