Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models, following the late-June heatwave that pushed Paris highs near 40°C, point to moderating conditions with a July 1 maximum most likely in the 26–27°C range. Key differentiators include variable low-level advection of slightly warmer continental air versus increased cloud cover or Atlantic influence that could cap temperatures a degree lower, plus uncertainties in daytime boundary-layer mixing and exact timing of any residual ridging. Météo-France seasonal outlooks favor above-normal July warmth overall, yet short-range guidance shows tight clustering around these values with limited potential for outliers above 28°C or below 25°C absent rapid pattern shifts. Traders weigh these model spreads against historical July variability centered near 25°C.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Paris on July 1?
Highest temperature in Paris on July 1?
25°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$189,146 Обс.
$189,146 Обс.
Jul 1, 2026
22°C or below
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
Yes
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C or higher
No
25°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$189,146 Обс.
$189,146 Обс.
Jul 1, 2026
22°C or below
$8,116 Обс.
No
23°C
$11,489 Обс.
No
24°C
$39,569 Обс.
No
25°C
$27,840 Обс.
Yes
26°C
$24,054 Обс.
No
27°C
$21,517 Обс.
No
28°C
$13,032 Обс.
No
29°C
$20,514 Обс.
No
30°C
$7,666 Обс.
No
31°C
$5,324 Обс.
No
32°C or higher
$10,025 Обс.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models, following the late-June heatwave that pushed Paris highs near 40°C, point to moderating conditions with a July 1 maximum most likely in the 26–27°C range. Key differentiators include variable low-level advection of slightly warmer continental air versus increased cloud cover or Atlantic influence that could cap temperatures a degree lower, plus uncertainties in daytime boundary-layer mixing and exact timing of any residual ridging. Météo-France seasonal outlooks favor above-normal July warmth overall, yet short-range guidance shows tight clustering around these values with limited potential for outliers above 28°C or below 25°C absent rapid pattern shifts. Traders weigh these model spreads against historical July variability centered near 25°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Jun 29, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Обсяг
$189,146Дата завершення
Jul 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 29, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models, following the late-June heatwave that pushed Paris highs near 40°C, point to moderating conditions with a July 1 maximum most likely in the 26–27°C range. Key differentiators include variable low-level advection of slightly warmer continental air versus increased cloud cover or Atlantic influence that could cap temperatures a degree lower, plus uncertainties in daytime boundary-layer mixing and exact timing of any residual ridging. Météo-France seasonal outlooks favor above-normal July warmth overall, yet short-range guidance shows tight clustering around these values with limited potential for outliers above 28°C or below 25°C absent rapid pattern shifts. Traders weigh these model spreads against historical July variability centered near 25°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$189,146Дата завершення
Jul 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 29, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models, following the late-June heatwave that pushed Paris highs near 40°C, point to moderating conditions with a July 1 maximum most likely in the 26–27°C range. Key differentiators include variable low-level advection of slightly warmer continental air versus increased cloud cover or Atlantic influence that could cap temperatures a degree lower, plus uncertainties in daytime boundary-layer mixing and exact timing of any residual ridging. Météo-France seasonal outlooks favor above-normal July warmth overall, yet short-range guidance shows tight clustering around these values with limited potential for outliers above 28°C or below 25°C absent rapid pattern shifts. Traders weigh these model spreads against historical July variability centered near 25°C.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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