Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 32°C in Taipei on May 2, driven by real-time observational data from the Central Weather Administration's (CWA) Taipei Songshan Airport station—the market's official resolution source—which recorded an afternoon peak of 32°C under mostly clear skies and light winds. This outcome exceeds the CWA's initial 27–30°C forecast due to enhanced subsidence from a subtropical high-pressure ridge, minimal cloud interference, and urban heat island amplification in the Taipei basin, consistent with upper-end GFS and ECMWF model runs. With sunset at approximately 18:24 local time and post-peak cooling underway, realistic challenges would require a rare data revision or anomalous late-evening surge, both improbable given diurnal temperature cycles. CWA end-of-day reports will finalize resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Taipei on May 2?
Highest temperature in Taipei on May 2?
32°C 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$145,833 Обс.
$145,833 Обс.
May 2, 2026
24°C or below
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
Yes
33°C
No
34°C or higher
No
32°C 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$145,833 Обс.
$145,833 Обс.
May 2, 2026
24°C or below
$1,214 Обс.
No
25°C
$2,459 Обс.
No
26°C
$2,864 Обс.
No
27°C
$4,109 Обс.
No
28°C
$7,197 Обс.
No
29°C
$5,709 Обс.
No
30°C
$12,369 Обс.
No
31°C
$66,454 Обс.
No
32°C
$18,258 Обс.
Yes
33°C
$12,422 Обс.
No
34°C or higher
$12,777 Обс.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 32°C in Taipei on May 2, driven by real-time observational data from the Central Weather Administration's (CWA) Taipei Songshan Airport station—the market's official resolution source—which recorded an afternoon peak of 32°C under mostly clear skies and light winds. This outcome exceeds the CWA's initial 27–30°C forecast due to enhanced subsidence from a subtropical high-pressure ridge, minimal cloud interference, and urban heat island amplification in the Taipei basin, consistent with upper-end GFS and ECMWF model runs. With sunset at approximately 18:24 local time and post-peak cooling underway, realistic challenges would require a rare data revision or anomalous late-evening surge, both improbable given diurnal temperature cycles. CWA end-of-day reports will finalize resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Обсяг
$145,833Дата завершення
May 2, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 32°C in Taipei on May 2, driven by real-time observational data from the Central Weather Administration's (CWA) Taipei Songshan Airport station—the market's official resolution source—which recorded an afternoon peak of 32°C under mostly clear skies and light winds. This outcome exceeds the CWA's initial 27–30°C forecast due to enhanced subsidence from a subtropical high-pressure ridge, minimal cloud interference, and urban heat island amplification in the Taipei basin, consistent with upper-end GFS and ECMWF model runs. With sunset at approximately 18:24 local time and post-peak cooling underway, realistic challenges would require a rare data revision or anomalous late-evening surge, both improbable given diurnal temperature cycles. CWA end-of-day reports will finalize resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$145,833Дата завершення
May 2, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 32°C in Taipei on May 2, driven by real-time observational data from the Central Weather Administration's (CWA) Taipei Songshan Airport station—the market's official resolution source—which recorded an afternoon peak of 32°C under mostly clear skies and light winds. This outcome exceeds the CWA's initial 27–30°C forecast due to enhanced subsidence from a subtropical high-pressure ridge, minimal cloud interference, and urban heat island amplification in the Taipei basin, consistent with upper-end GFS and ECMWF model runs. With sunset at approximately 18:24 local time and post-peak cooling underway, realistic challenges would require a rare data revision or anomalous late-evening surge, both improbable given diurnal temperature cycles. CWA end-of-day reports will finalize resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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