Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature reaching 25°C or higher on May 12, driven by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) early morning forecast update projecting a peak of 26°C under partly cloudy skies and high pressure dominance. Current observational data shows overnight lows around 16°C with light winds, setting up favorable daytime heating absent significant precipitation risks, as confirmed by ensemble model runs. May climatology typically sees highs near 23°C, but this synoptic pattern—marked by subsiding air and solar insolation—supports above-normal warmth. Realistic challenges include sudden marine layer intrusion or unforecast cloud cover capping peaks below threshold, though JMA hourly updates and station readings through afternoon provide ongoing resolution clarity.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Tokyo on May 12?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 12?
25°C or higher 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$60,579 Обс.
$60,579 Обс.
May 12, 2026
15°C or below
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C or higher
Yes
25°C or higher 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$60,579 Обс.
$60,579 Обс.
May 12, 2026
15°C or below
$1,840 Обс.
No
16°C
$1,610 Обс.
No
17°C
$1,507 Обс.
No
18°C
$1,532 Обс.
No
19°C
$2,853 Обс.
No
20°C
$1,997 Обс.
No
21°C
$6,117 Обс.
No
22°C
$8,767 Обс.
No
23°C
$10,420 Обс.
No
24°C
$8,231 Обс.
No
25°C or higher
$15,704 Обс.
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature reaching 25°C or higher on May 12, driven by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) early morning forecast update projecting a peak of 26°C under partly cloudy skies and high pressure dominance. Current observational data shows overnight lows around 16°C with light winds, setting up favorable daytime heating absent significant precipitation risks, as confirmed by ensemble model runs. May climatology typically sees highs near 23°C, but this synoptic pattern—marked by subsiding air and solar insolation—supports above-normal warmth. Realistic challenges include sudden marine layer intrusion or unforecast cloud cover capping peaks below threshold, though JMA hourly updates and station readings through afternoon provide ongoing resolution clarity.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: May 10, 2026, 12:09 AM ET
Обсяг
$60,579Дата завершення
May 12, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 10, 2026, 12:09 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature reaching 25°C or higher on May 12, driven by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) early morning forecast update projecting a peak of 26°C under partly cloudy skies and high pressure dominance. Current observational data shows overnight lows around 16°C with light winds, setting up favorable daytime heating absent significant precipitation risks, as confirmed by ensemble model runs. May climatology typically sees highs near 23°C, but this synoptic pattern—marked by subsiding air and solar insolation—supports above-normal warmth. Realistic challenges include sudden marine layer intrusion or unforecast cloud cover capping peaks below threshold, though JMA hourly updates and station readings through afternoon provide ongoing resolution clarity.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$60,579Дата завершення
May 12, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 10, 2026, 12:09 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature reaching 25°C or higher on May 12, driven by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) early morning forecast update projecting a peak of 26°C under partly cloudy skies and high pressure dominance. Current observational data shows overnight lows around 16°C with light winds, setting up favorable daytime heating absent significant precipitation risks, as confirmed by ensemble model runs. May climatology typically sees highs near 23°C, but this synoptic pattern—marked by subsiding air and solar insolation—supports above-normal warmth. Realistic challenges include sudden marine layer intrusion or unforecast cloud cover capping peaks below threshold, though JMA hourly updates and station readings through afternoon provide ongoing resolution clarity.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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