Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-total certainty (100% implied probability) for a 22°C high temperature at Tokyo's Haneda Airport station on May 5, 2026, anchored by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) 17:00 forecast and hourly observations confirming a midday peak of 22°C under partly cloudy skies and light winds. This positioning stems from a stable Pacific high-pressure ridge delivering mild early-May conditions—climatologically averaging 22–23°C highs—but with broken cloud cover limiting solar insolation and preventing further warming, as temperatures cool to 21°C by late afternoon. Realistic challenges include sudden sky clearing for late-day heating to 22.5°C (rounding to 23°C per whole-degree resolution via Wunderground data), though current trends and model consensus make this unlikely ahead of final JMA observations.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Tokyo on May 5?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 5?
22°C 100.0%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$120,151 Обс.
$120,151 Обс.
May 5, 2026
13°C or below
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
Yes
23°C or higher
No
22°C 100.0%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$120,151 Обс.
$120,151 Обс.
May 5, 2026
13°C or below
$688 Обс.
No
14°C
$1,234 Обс.
No
15°C
$667 Обс.
No
16°C
$461 Обс.
No
17°C
$2,700 Обс.
No
18°C
$3,941 Обс.
No
19°C
$12,138 Обс.
No
20°C
$7,795 Обс.
No
21°C
$30,282 Обс.
No
22°C
$24,370 Обс.
Yes
23°C or higher
$35,875 Обс.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-total certainty (100% implied probability) for a 22°C high temperature at Tokyo's Haneda Airport station on May 5, 2026, anchored by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) 17:00 forecast and hourly observations confirming a midday peak of 22°C under partly cloudy skies and light winds. This positioning stems from a stable Pacific high-pressure ridge delivering mild early-May conditions—climatologically averaging 22–23°C highs—but with broken cloud cover limiting solar insolation and preventing further warming, as temperatures cool to 21°C by late afternoon. Realistic challenges include sudden sky clearing for late-day heating to 22.5°C (rounding to 23°C per whole-degree resolution via Wunderground data), though current trends and model consensus make this unlikely ahead of final JMA observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: May 3, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Обсяг
$120,151Дата завершення
May 5, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 3, 2026, 12:08 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-total certainty (100% implied probability) for a 22°C high temperature at Tokyo's Haneda Airport station on May 5, 2026, anchored by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) 17:00 forecast and hourly observations confirming a midday peak of 22°C under partly cloudy skies and light winds. This positioning stems from a stable Pacific high-pressure ridge delivering mild early-May conditions—climatologically averaging 22–23°C highs—but with broken cloud cover limiting solar insolation and preventing further warming, as temperatures cool to 21°C by late afternoon. Realistic challenges include sudden sky clearing for late-day heating to 22.5°C (rounding to 23°C per whole-degree resolution via Wunderground data), though current trends and model consensus make this unlikely ahead of final JMA observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$120,151Дата завершення
May 5, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 3, 2026, 12:08 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-total certainty (100% implied probability) for a 22°C high temperature at Tokyo's Haneda Airport station on May 5, 2026, anchored by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) 17:00 forecast and hourly observations confirming a midday peak of 22°C under partly cloudy skies and light winds. This positioning stems from a stable Pacific high-pressure ridge delivering mild early-May conditions—climatologically averaging 22–23°C highs—but with broken cloud cover limiting solar insolation and preventing further warming, as temperatures cool to 21°C by late afternoon. Realistic challenges include sudden sky clearing for late-day heating to 22.5°C (rounding to 23°C per whole-degree resolution via Wunderground data), though current trends and model consensus make this unlikely ahead of final JMA observations.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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