Official temperature observations from Environment and Climate Change Canada confirm that Toronto reached a daily maximum of 14°C on May 23 under northerly flow and mostly cloudy conditions, aligning precisely with the market's near-certain outcome. Surface station data, including standard measurements at Pearson International Airport, showed afternoon peaks no higher than this threshold, consistent with model guidance issued in the preceding 48 hours that incorporated cool advection and limited insolation. This strong consensus reflects traders' confidence in verified meteorological records over forecasts. A realistic challenge would require an official data revision or alternative station reporting a higher value, though historical patterns indicate such adjustments are rare once preliminary observations are finalized.