Recent ensemble forecasts from major models place Warsaw's August 4 maximum near 33–34 °C, driving the near-equal market shares at 31.5 % and 33.5 %. Subtle differences in simulated boundary-layer mixing, afternoon cloud timing, and southerly warm-air advection explain the tight spread between these outcomes, while 35 °C retains 20.5 % support if daytime heating exceeds current consensus. Official guidance from the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (IMGW) and updated ECMWF/GFS runs expected August 3 will refine local wind and insolation details ahead of the market close.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 4?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 4?
34°C 33%
33°C 32%
35°C 21%
32°C 12%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 4, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
2%
31°C
9%
32°C
12%
33°C
32%
34°C
33%
35°C
21%
36°C or higher
4%
34°C 33%
33°C 32%
35°C 21%
32°C 12%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 4, 2026
26°C or below
$0 Обс.
<1%
27°C
$0 Обс.
<1%
28°C
$10 Обс.
<1%
29°C
$10 Обс.
<1%
30°C
$20 Обс.
2%
31°C
$6 Обс.
9%
32°C
$10 Обс.
12%
33°C
$13 Обс.
32%
34°C
$38 Обс.
33%
35°C
$0 Обс.
21%
36°C or higher
$5 Обс.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from major models place Warsaw's August 4 maximum near 33–34 °C, driving the near-equal market shares at 31.5 % and 33.5 %. Subtle differences in simulated boundary-layer mixing, afternoon cloud timing, and southerly warm-air advection explain the tight spread between these outcomes, while 35 °C retains 20.5 % support if daytime heating exceeds current consensus. Official guidance from the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (IMGW) and updated ECMWF/GFS runs expected August 3 will refine local wind and insolation details ahead of the market close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 2, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Обсяг
$113Дата завершення
Aug 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 2, 2026, 12:04 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from major models place Warsaw's August 4 maximum near 33–34 °C, driving the near-equal market shares at 31.5 % and 33.5 %. Subtle differences in simulated boundary-layer mixing, afternoon cloud timing, and southerly warm-air advection explain the tight spread between these outcomes, while 35 °C retains 20.5 % support if daytime heating exceeds current consensus. Official guidance from the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (IMGW) and updated ECMWF/GFS runs expected August 3 will refine local wind and insolation details ahead of the market close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$113Дата завершення
Aug 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 2, 2026, 12:04 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from major models place Warsaw's August 4 maximum near 33–34 °C, driving the near-equal market shares at 31.5 % and 33.5 %. Subtle differences in simulated boundary-layer mixing, afternoon cloud timing, and southerly warm-air advection explain the tight spread between these outcomes, while 35 °C retains 20.5 % support if daytime heating exceeds current consensus. Official guidance from the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (IMGW) and updated ECMWF/GFS runs expected August 3 will refine local wind and insolation details ahead of the market close.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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