Recent Republican-led congressional redistricting in Texas, enacted in 2025, has redrawn maps to target several Democratic-held districts and strengthen GOP advantages in suburban and border areas. This structural shift, alongside typical midterm headwinds for the president's party and varying turnout patterns in urban versus rural districts, keeps projected Democratic seat totals tightly clustered between 9 and 13. Trader pricing around 11 seats as the modal outcome reflects uncertainty over whether national polling momentum or local candidate recruitment can offset the new boundaries before November voting. Late-cycle developments such as special elections, scandals, or shifts in generic ballot margins could widen the range.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено11 23%
12 16%
10 16%
14+ 16%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
<8
1%
8
8%
9
12%
10
16%
11
23%
12
16%
13
15%
14+
16%
11 23%
12 16%
10 16%
14+ 16%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
<8
$104 Обс.
1%
8
$3,228 Обс.
8%
9
$714 Обс.
12%
10
$229 Обс.
16%
11
$453 Обс.
23%
12
$241 Обс.
16%
13
$290 Обс.
15%
14+
$159 Обс.
16%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Texas in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Texas US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent Republican-led congressional redistricting in Texas, enacted in 2025, has redrawn maps to target several Democratic-held districts and strengthen GOP advantages in suburban and border areas. This structural shift, alongside typical midterm headwinds for the president's party and varying turnout patterns in urban versus rural districts, keeps projected Democratic seat totals tightly clustered between 9 and 13. Trader pricing around 11 seats as the modal outcome reflects uncertainty over whether national polling momentum or local candidate recruitment can offset the new boundaries before November voting. Late-cycle developments such as special elections, scandals, or shifts in generic ballot margins could widen the range.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Texas in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Texas US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Texas US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 11, 2026, 10:14 AM ET
Обсяг
$5,417Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 11, 2026, 10:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Texas in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Texas US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent Republican-led congressional redistricting in Texas, enacted in 2025, has redrawn maps to target several Democratic-held districts and strengthen GOP advantages in suburban and border areas. This structural shift, alongside typical midterm headwinds for the president's party and varying turnout patterns in urban versus rural districts, keeps projected Democratic seat totals tightly clustered between 9 and 13. Trader pricing around 11 seats as the modal outcome reflects uncertainty over whether national polling momentum or local candidate recruitment can offset the new boundaries before November voting. Late-cycle developments such as special elections, scandals, or shifts in generic ballot margins could widen the range.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Texas in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Texas US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Texas US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$5,417Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 11, 2026, 10:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Republican-led congressional redistricting in Texas, enacted in 2025, has redrawn maps to target several Democratic-held districts and strengthen GOP advantages in suburban and border areas. This structural shift, alongside typical midterm headwinds for the president's party and varying turnout patterns in urban versus rural districts, keeps projected Democratic seat totals tightly clustered between 9 and 13. Trader pricing around 11 seats as the modal outcome reflects uncertainty over whether national polling momentum or local candidate recruitment can offset the new boundaries before November voting. Late-cycle developments such as special elections, scandals, or shifts in generic ballot margins could widen the range.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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