Elevated inflation readings, with July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, alongside a resilient labor market showing 162,000 August nonfarm payroll gains and 4.1% unemployment, underpin the 65.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. The Federal Reserve's June 2026 projections raised end-2026 PCE inflation expectations to 3.6% and shifted the median dot plot toward at least one hike by year-end, reflecting a hawkish tilt under Chair Kevin Warsh amid energy-driven price pressures. This positions a 25 basis point increase at 32.5% as the next most likely outcome, while cuts remain below 3% combined. The September 11 CPI release and September 15-16 FOMC decision represent key near-term catalysts that could adjust these probabilities ahead of the October resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNo change 66%
25 bps increase 33%
25 bps decrease 2.4%
50+ bps increase <1%
$1,535,759 Обс.
$1,535,759 Обс.
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
2%
No change
66%
25 bps increase
33%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 66%
25 bps increase 33%
25 bps decrease 2.4%
50+ bps increase <1%
$1,535,759 Обс.
$1,535,759 Обс.
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$257,843 Обс.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$565,817 Обс.
2%
No change
$239,040 Обс.
66%
25 bps increase
$303,477 Обс.
33%
50+ bps increase
$169,582 Обс.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation readings, with July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, alongside a resilient labor market showing 162,000 August nonfarm payroll gains and 4.1% unemployment, underpin the 65.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. The Federal Reserve's June 2026 projections raised end-2026 PCE inflation expectations to 3.6% and shifted the median dot plot toward at least one hike by year-end, reflecting a hawkish tilt under Chair Kevin Warsh amid energy-driven price pressures. This positions a 25 basis point increase at 32.5% as the next most likely outcome, while cuts remain below 3% combined. The September 11 CPI release and September 15-16 FOMC decision represent key near-term catalysts that could adjust these probabilities ahead of the October resolution.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Ринок відкрито: Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Обсяг
$1,535,759Дата завершення
Oct 28, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation readings, with July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, alongside a resilient labor market showing 162,000 August nonfarm payroll gains and 4.1% unemployment, underpin the 65.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. The Federal Reserve's June 2026 projections raised end-2026 PCE inflation expectations to 3.6% and shifted the median dot plot toward at least one hike by year-end, reflecting a hawkish tilt under Chair Kevin Warsh amid energy-driven price pressures. This positions a 25 basis point increase at 32.5% as the next most likely outcome, while cuts remain below 3% combined. The September 11 CPI release and September 15-16 FOMC decision represent key near-term catalysts that could adjust these probabilities ahead of the October resolution.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Обсяг
$1,535,759Дата завершення
Oct 28, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation readings, with July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, alongside a resilient labor market showing 162,000 August nonfarm payroll gains and 4.1% unemployment, underpin the 65.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. The Federal Reserve's June 2026 projections raised end-2026 PCE inflation expectations to 3.6% and shifted the median dot plot toward at least one hike by year-end, reflecting a hawkish tilt under Chair Kevin Warsh amid energy-driven price pressures. This positions a 25 basis point increase at 32.5% as the next most likely outcome, while cuts remain below 3% combined. The September 11 CPI release and September 15-16 FOMC decision represent key near-term catalysts that could adjust these probabilities ahead of the October resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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