Persistent inflation, with April 2026 CPI rising to 3.8% year-over-year amid an energy price surge from geopolitical tensions, remains the dominant factor anchoring trader expectations for no near-term Federal Reserve easing. The FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at the 3.5%-3.75% target range in April, marking the third consecutive pause and featuring elevated dissent. Market-implied pricing assigns negligible probability to a cut at the June 16-17 meeting, consistent with resilient labor market data and above-target inflation readings. The upcoming May CPI release on June 10 and the June FOMC statement will provide fresh inputs into the policy path, with futures markets currently embedding a hold through year-end.