Elevated inflation readings above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with stabilizing labor market conditions and higher energy prices linked to geopolitical tensions, have anchored the federal funds rate at the 3.50%-3.75% target range through the April FOMC meeting. Recent minutes highlighted participant concerns that tariff effects and persistent price pressures could delay easing, shifting median expectations for any 25-basis-point cuts into the second half of 2026 or later. Futures markets now assign minimal probability to policy changes this year, while the June 16-17 meeting will deliver fresh economic projections and the first potential leadership transition. Traders are monitoring upcoming CPI releases and employment data for signs that could alter the current hold bias.