**Elevated inflation from geopolitical energy shocks and a resilient labor market have anchored trader consensus around Pause–Pause–Pause for the April, May, and June FOMC meetings, with July also expected to hold at the 3.50–3.75% federal funds target range.** April and May decisions delivered no change amid an unusually divided 8–4 April vote, while May CPI accelerated to 4.2% year-over-year on surging crude and gasoline prices tied to the Iran conflict. Stronger-than-expected payrolls and contained unemployment have further reduced the case for near-term easing, aligning market-implied odds with the Fed’s data-dependent stance and limited 2026 dot-plot projections. The June 16–17 meeting, just ahead, and July 28–29 session remain the key near-term catalysts. A sharp downside surprise in upcoming CPI or payrolls prints could still introduce volatility and reopen cut probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоPause–Pause–Pause 93%
Other 4.8%
Pause–Pause–Cut 3.5%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.4%
$54,362 Обс.
$54,362 Обс.
Jul 29, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
4%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
<1%
Other
5%
Pause–Pause–Pause 93%
Other 4.8%
Pause–Pause–Cut 3.5%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.4%
$54,362 Обс.
$54,362 Обс.
Jul 29, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$4,894 Обс.
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$2,922 Обс.
4%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$2,632 Обс.
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$1,937 Обс.
<1%
Other
$1,991 Обс.
5%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Elevated inflation from geopolitical energy shocks and a resilient labor market have anchored trader consensus around Pause–Pause–Pause for the April, May, and June FOMC meetings, with July also expected to hold at the 3.50–3.75% federal funds target range.**
April and May decisions delivered no change amid an unusually divided 8–4 April vote, while May CPI accelerated to 4.2% year-over-year on surging crude and gasoline prices tied to the Iran conflict. Stronger-than-expected payrolls and contained unemployment have further reduced the case for near-term easing, aligning market-implied odds with the Fed’s data-dependent stance and limited 2026 dot-plot projections. The June 16–17 meeting, just ahead, and July 28–29 session remain the key near-term catalysts. A sharp downside surprise in upcoming CPI or payrolls prints could still introduce volatility and reopen cut probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Ринок відкрито: Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
Обсяг
$54,362Дата завершення
Jul 29, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Elevated inflation from geopolitical energy shocks and a resilient labor market have anchored trader consensus around Pause–Pause–Pause for the April, May, and June FOMC meetings, with July also expected to hold at the 3.50–3.75% federal funds target range.**
April and May decisions delivered no change amid an unusually divided 8–4 April vote, while May CPI accelerated to 4.2% year-over-year on surging crude and gasoline prices tied to the Iran conflict. Stronger-than-expected payrolls and contained unemployment have further reduced the case for near-term easing, aligning market-implied odds with the Fed’s data-dependent stance and limited 2026 dot-plot projections. The June 16–17 meeting, just ahead, and July 28–29 session remain the key near-term catalysts. A sharp downside surprise in upcoming CPI or payrolls prints could still introduce volatility and reopen cut probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Обсяг
$54,362Дата завершення
Jul 29, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Elevated inflation from geopolitical energy shocks and a resilient labor market have anchored trader consensus around Pause–Pause–Pause for the April, May, and June FOMC meetings, with July also expected to hold at the 3.50–3.75% federal funds target range.** April and May decisions delivered no change amid an unusually divided 8–4 April vote, while May CPI accelerated to 4.2% year-over-year on surging crude and gasoline prices tied to the Iran conflict. Stronger-than-expected payrolls and contained unemployment have further reduced the case for near-term easing, aligning market-implied odds with the Fed’s data-dependent stance and limited 2026 dot-plot projections. The June 16–17 meeting, just ahead, and July 28–29 session remain the key near-term catalysts. A sharp downside surprise in upcoming CPI or payrolls prints could still introduce volatility and reopen cut probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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