Polymarket traders' strong 78% implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the April 28–29, June 16–17, and July 28–29 FOMC meetings reflects resilient U.S. economic data tempering rate-cut expectations. March 2026 CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—with a 0.9% monthly gain fueled by energy prices, the largest since 2022, while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs, exceeding forecasts and edging unemployment to 4.3%. The March FOMC held rates steady amid elevated inflation, aligning with Chair Powell's outlook for anchored expectations but no urgency for easing. Upcoming April data releases could influence the imminent meeting, though trader consensus prices in sustained policy patience.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоPause–Pause–Pause 79%
Pause–Pause–Cut 11%
Other 9%
Pause–Cut–Cut 3.5%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Jul 29, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
3%
Cut–Cut–Pause
<1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
<1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
79%
Pause–Pause–Cut
11%
Pause–Cut–Pause
3%
Pause–Cut–Cut
3%
Other
9%
Pause–Pause–Pause 79%
Pause–Pause–Cut 11%
Other 9%
Pause–Cut–Cut 3.5%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Jul 29, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
$993 Обс.
1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$727 Обс.
3%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$730 Обс.
<1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$756 Обс.
<1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$1,401 Обс.
79%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$944 Обс.
11%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$604 Обс.
3%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$755 Обс.
3%
Other
$906 Обс.
9%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders' strong 78% implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the April 28–29, June 16–17, and July 28–29 FOMC meetings reflects resilient U.S. economic data tempering rate-cut expectations. March 2026 CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—with a 0.9% monthly gain fueled by energy prices, the largest since 2022, while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs, exceeding forecasts and edging unemployment to 4.3%. The March FOMC held rates steady amid elevated inflation, aligning with Chair Powell's outlook for anchored expectations but no urgency for easing. Upcoming April data releases could influence the imminent meeting, though trader consensus prices in sustained policy patience.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Ринок відкрито: Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
Обсяг
$7,815Дата завершення
Jul 29, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders' strong 78% implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the April 28–29, June 16–17, and July 28–29 FOMC meetings reflects resilient U.S. economic data tempering rate-cut expectations. March 2026 CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—with a 0.9% monthly gain fueled by energy prices, the largest since 2022, while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs, exceeding forecasts and edging unemployment to 4.3%. The March FOMC held rates steady amid elevated inflation, aligning with Chair Powell's outlook for anchored expectations but no urgency for easing. Upcoming April data releases could influence the imminent meeting, though trader consensus prices in sustained policy patience.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Обсяг
$7,815Дата завершення
Jul 29, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders' strong 78% implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the April 28–29, June 16–17, and July 28–29 FOMC meetings reflects resilient U.S. economic data tempering rate-cut expectations. March 2026 CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—with a 0.9% monthly gain fueled by energy prices, the largest since 2022, while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs, exceeding forecasts and edging unemployment to 4.3%. The March FOMC held rates steady amid elevated inflation, aligning with Chair Powell's outlook for anchored expectations but no urgency for easing. Upcoming April data releases could influence the imminent meeting, though trader consensus prices in sustained policy patience.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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