Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.3% implied probability of no change to the federal funds target range of 3.50%-3.75% at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient labor market data and sticky inflation amid geopolitical tensions. March nonfarm payrolls rose 178,000 with unemployment dipping to 4.3%, while CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year—fueled by an Iran-related oil shock—up from February's 2.4%, prompting March FOMC minutes to highlight balanced risks and openness to hikes if pressures persist. The March policy hold and dot plot signaling one 2026 cut later underpin this positioning, though a surprise pre-meeting PCE slowdown or ceasefire could marginally challenge the consensus.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоРішення ФРС у квітні?
Рішення ФРС у квітні?
Без змін 99.3%
Зниження на 25 базисних пунктів <1%
Підвищення на 25+ б.п. <1%
Зниження на понад 50 б. п. <1%
$108,218,465 Обс.
$108,218,465 Обс.
Apr 29, 2026
Зниження на понад 50 б. п.
<1%
Зниження на 25 базисних пунктів
<1%
Без змін
99%
Підвищення на 25+ б.п.
<1%
Без змін 99.3%
Зниження на 25 базисних пунктів <1%
Підвищення на 25+ б.п. <1%
Зниження на понад 50 б. п. <1%
$108,218,465 Обс.
$108,218,465 Обс.
Apr 29, 2026
Зниження на понад 50 б. п.
$41,082,687 Обс.
<1%
Зниження на 25 базисних пунктів
$20,850,520 Обс.
<1%
Без змін
$21,469,599 Обс.
99%
Підвищення на 25+ б.п.
$24,832,341 Обс.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.3% implied probability of no change to the federal funds target range of 3.50%-3.75% at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient labor market data and sticky inflation amid geopolitical tensions. March nonfarm payrolls rose 178,000 with unemployment dipping to 4.3%, while CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year—fueled by an Iran-related oil shock—up from February's 2.4%, prompting March FOMC minutes to highlight balanced risks and openness to hikes if pressures persist. The March policy hold and dot plot signaling one 2026 cut later underpin this positioning, though a surprise pre-meeting PCE slowdown or ceasefire could marginally challenge the consensus.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ET
Обсяг
$108,218,465Дата завершення
Apr 29, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.3% implied probability of no change to the federal funds target range of 3.50%-3.75% at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient labor market data and sticky inflation amid geopolitical tensions. March nonfarm payrolls rose 178,000 with unemployment dipping to 4.3%, while CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year—fueled by an Iran-related oil shock—up from February's 2.4%, prompting March FOMC minutes to highlight balanced risks and openness to hikes if pressures persist. The March policy hold and dot plot signaling one 2026 cut later underpin this positioning, though a surprise pre-meeting PCE slowdown or ceasefire could marginally challenge the consensus.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Обсяг
$108,218,465Дата завершення
Apr 29, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.3% implied probability of no change to the federal funds target range of 3.50%-3.75% at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient labor market data and sticky inflation amid geopolitical tensions. March nonfarm payrolls rose 178,000 with unemployment dipping to 4.3%, while CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year—fueled by an Iran-related oil shock—up from February's 2.4%, prompting March FOMC minutes to highlight balanced risks and openness to hikes if pressures persist. The March policy hold and dot plot signaling one 2026 cut later underpin this positioning, though a surprise pre-meeting PCE slowdown or ceasefire could marginally challenge the consensus.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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