The Justice Department’s April 2026 closure of its criminal probe into Jerome Powell over Federal Reserve headquarters renovation costs—now exceeding $2.5 billion—remains the dominant factor anchoring low implied probabilities of federal charges by year-end. A federal judge had earlier quashed subpoenas, citing essentially zero evidence of criminal conduct beyond political friction with the administration over monetary policy. The referral to the Fed inspector general, who previously identified no fraud, further reduces prospects for indictment. Powell completed his term as chair in May 2026 with Kevin Warsh confirmed as successor, and no new investigative activity or congressional referrals have emerged since. Trader consensus, backed by real capital on prediction markets, prices these outcomes near zero through December 2026, reflecting the probe’s collapse and absence of fresh legal catalysts.