The dismissal of the DOJ criminal probe into Jerome Powell in April 2026, following a federal judge's ruling that cited essentially zero evidence of wrongdoing tied to Federal Reserve headquarters renovations and congressional testimony, underpins the 98% market-implied probability against incarceration before 2027. With Powell's term as chair having concluded in May 2026 and no pending indictments or charges as of August 2026, traders price in the strong institutional safeguards around central bank officials and the absence of viable legal pathways. The compressed timeline to year-end further limits realistic scenarios. Tail risks remain remote and hinge on unprecedented new political interventions lacking evidentiary basis, which markets currently assign negligible weight given precedent and procedural hurdles.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоJerome Powell in jail before 2027?
Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 31, 2026
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The dismissal of the DOJ criminal probe into Jerome Powell in April 2026, following a federal judge's ruling that cited essentially zero evidence of wrongdoing tied to Federal Reserve headquarters renovations and congressional testimony, underpins the 98% market-implied probability against incarceration before 2027. With Powell's term as chair having concluded in May 2026 and no pending indictments or charges as of August 2026, traders price in the strong institutional safeguards around central bank officials and the absence of viable legal pathways. The compressed timeline to year-end further limits realistic scenarios. Tail risks remain remote and hinge on unprecedented new political interventions lacking evidentiary basis, which markets currently assign negligible weight given precedent and procedural hurdles.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ET
Обсяг
$5,592Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The dismissal of the DOJ criminal probe into Jerome Powell in April 2026, following a federal judge's ruling that cited essentially zero evidence of wrongdoing tied to Federal Reserve headquarters renovations and congressional testimony, underpins the 98% market-implied probability against incarceration before 2027. With Powell's term as chair having concluded in May 2026 and no pending indictments or charges as of August 2026, traders price in the strong institutional safeguards around central bank officials and the absence of viable legal pathways. The compressed timeline to year-end further limits realistic scenarios. Tail risks remain remote and hinge on unprecedented new political interventions lacking evidentiary basis, which markets currently assign negligible weight given precedent and procedural hurdles.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$5,592Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The dismissal of the DOJ criminal probe into Jerome Powell in April 2026, following a federal judge's ruling that cited essentially zero evidence of wrongdoing tied to Federal Reserve headquarters renovations and congressional testimony, underpins the 98% market-implied probability against incarceration before 2027. With Powell's term as chair having concluded in May 2026 and no pending indictments or charges as of August 2026, traders price in the strong institutional safeguards around central bank officials and the absence of viable legal pathways. The compressed timeline to year-end further limits realistic scenarios. Tail risks remain remote and hinge on unprecedented new political interventions lacking evidentiary basis, which markets currently assign negligible weight given precedent and procedural hurdles.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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