Traders price Jerome Powell’s odds of imprisonment before 2027 at just 2.7 percent because the sole federal probe—opened in January 2026 over congressional testimony on Federal Reserve headquarters renovations—ended without charges after a federal judge quashed related subpoenas in March and the Justice Department transferred the matter to the Fed’s inspector general in April. No new indictments or credible allegations have emerged, and institutional norms plus the absence of prosecutable evidence beyond policy disagreements underpin the near-certain “No” consensus. Tail-risk scenarios include an unforeseen whistleblower disclosure or rapid reopening of a dormant inquiry, though both remain remote given the completed review and Powell’s continued service on the Board through 2028.