The closure of the Justice Department’s criminal probe into Jerome Powell in April 2026, following a federal judge’s March ruling that no evidence supported charges related to his congressional testimony on Federal Reserve headquarters renovations, underpins the 97% market-implied probability that he avoids jail before 2027. With the investigation referred to the Fed’s inspector general and no active cases or credible allegations outstanding as of mid-September 2026, traders price in the Fed chair’s institutional safeguards, fixed term as governor through 2028, and historical precedent that policy disputes have never produced prosecutions. While tail risks such as an unprecedented executive restart of proceedings remain theoretically possible, judicial oversight and lack of evidentiary basis render them remote in current conditions.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоJerome Powell in jail before 2027?
Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?
3% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 31, 2026
3% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The closure of the Justice Department’s criminal probe into Jerome Powell in April 2026, following a federal judge’s March ruling that no evidence supported charges related to his congressional testimony on Federal Reserve headquarters renovations, underpins the 97% market-implied probability that he avoids jail before 2027. With the investigation referred to the Fed’s inspector general and no active cases or credible allegations outstanding as of mid-September 2026, traders price in the Fed chair’s institutional safeguards, fixed term as governor through 2028, and historical precedent that policy disputes have never produced prosecutions. While tail risks such as an unprecedented executive restart of proceedings remain theoretically possible, judicial oversight and lack of evidentiary basis render them remote in current conditions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ET
Обсяг
$5,739Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The closure of the Justice Department’s criminal probe into Jerome Powell in April 2026, following a federal judge’s March ruling that no evidence supported charges related to his congressional testimony on Federal Reserve headquarters renovations, underpins the 97% market-implied probability that he avoids jail before 2027. With the investigation referred to the Fed’s inspector general and no active cases or credible allegations outstanding as of mid-September 2026, traders price in the Fed chair’s institutional safeguards, fixed term as governor through 2028, and historical precedent that policy disputes have never produced prosecutions. While tail risks such as an unprecedented executive restart of proceedings remain theoretically possible, judicial oversight and lack of evidentiary basis render them remote in current conditions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$5,739Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...The closure of the Justice Department’s criminal probe into Jerome Powell in April 2026, following a federal judge’s March ruling that no evidence supported charges related to his congressional testimony on Federal Reserve headquarters renovations, underpins the 97% market-implied probability that he avoids jail before 2027. With the investigation referred to the Fed’s inspector general and no active cases or credible allegations outstanding as of mid-September 2026, traders price in the Fed chair’s institutional safeguards, fixed term as governor through 2028, and historical precedent that policy disputes have never produced prosecutions. While tail risks such as an unprecedented executive restart of proceedings remain theoretically possible, judicial oversight and lack of evidentiary basis render them remote in current conditions.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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