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Економ·Тарифи Fed

How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

icon for How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Економ·Тарифи Fed

How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

НОВЕ
Dec 30, 2026
Polymarket

$0.00 Обс.

Polymarket

Below 4.50%

$0 Обс.

50%

Below 4.45%

$0 Обс.

50%

Below 4.40%

$0 Обс.

50%

Below 4.35%

$0 Обс.

50%

Below 4.30%

$0 Обс.

50%

Below 4.25%

$0 Обс.

50%

Below 4.20%

$0 Обс.

50%

Below 4.10%

$0 Обс.

50%

Below 4.00%

$0 Обс.

50%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent surges in the 5-year Treasury yield to around 4.54% as of early September 2026 stem primarily from persistent inflation pressures above the Fed’s 2% target, amplified by oil price spikes tied to geopolitical tensions and resilient labor market data. Hawkish repricing of monetary policy expectations— including reduced odds of near-term cuts and potential hikes—has lifted real yields and the term premium, while elevated federal debt issuance exceeding $40 trillion adds supply pressure that demands higher compensation from investors. Market-implied odds reflect this shift, with the upcoming August employment report, CPI release, and September FOMC meeting (including updated projections) serving as key near-term catalysts that could either reinforce the higher-yield baseline or open room for moderation before 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Обсяг
$0
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET

Вирішувач

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent surges in the 5-year Treasury yield to around 4.54% as of early September 2026 stem primarily from persistent inflation pressures above the Fed’s 2% target, amplified by oil price spikes tied to geopolitical tensions and resilient labor market data. Hawkish repricing of monetary policy expectations— including reduced odds of near-term cuts and potential hikes—has lifted real yields and the term premium, while elevated federal debt issuance exceeding $40 trillion adds supply pressure that demands higher compensation from investors. Market-implied odds reflect this shift, with the upcoming August employment report, CPI release, and September FOMC meeting (including updated projections) serving as key near-term catalysts that could either reinforce the higher-yield baseline or open room for moderation before 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Обсяг
$0
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET

Вирішувач

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

Пов'язане

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Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.40% in September?

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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket з 9 можливими результатами, де трейдери купують і продають акції залежно від того, що, на їхню думку, станеться. Поточний лідер — «Below 4.50%» з 50%, далі «Below 4.45%» з 50%. Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

«How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?» — це нещодавно створений ринок на Polymarket, запущений Sep 2, 2026. Як ранній ринок, це ваша можливість бути серед перших трейдерів, що встановлюють шанси. Ви також можете зберегти цю сторінку в закладки для відстеження обсягу.

Щоб торгувати на «How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?», перегляньте 9 доступних результатів на цій сторінці. Кожен результат відображає поточну ціну — ймовірність ринку. Оберіть результат, оберіть «Так» чи «Ні», введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ваш вибір правильний при вирішенні, акції «Так» виплачують $1. Якщо ні — $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточний фаворит для «How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?» — «Below 4.50%» з 50%. Наступний — «Below 4.45%» з 50%. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі, коли трейдери купують і продають акції. Слідкуйте за змінами шансів з появою нової інформації.

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