Trader sentiment on Polymarket remains tightly contested between zero (35%) and one (29.5%) Fed rate cuts—or 0 and 25 basis points—in 2026, as persistent inflation pressures from oil shocks tied to the Iran conflict offset the March FOMC dot plot's median projection of a single cut to 3.4% by year-end. The Fed held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% on March 18 amid hotter-than-expected March CPI and elevated core PCE, with minutes revealing openness to hikes among some officials. Robust labor markets, evidenced by April 9 jobless claims at 219,000, bolster the no-cut view, while Deutsche Bank's April 17 forecast of unchanged rates through 2026 reinforces caution. Upcoming April 28-29 FOMC and May CPI release loom as pivotal catalysts that could tip the balance.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено0 (0 б.п.) 35.6%
1 (25 б.п.) 30%
2 (50 бп) 19%
3 (75 б.п.) 7%
$19,618,135 Обс.
$19,618,135 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 б.п.)
36%
1 (25 б.п.)
30%
2 (50 бп)
19%
3 (75 б.п.)
7%
4 (100 б.п.)
4%
5 (125 б.п.)
1%
6 (150 б.п.)
1%
7 (175 б.п.)
<1%
8 (200 б.п.)
<1%
9 (225 б.п.)
<1%
10 (250 б.п.)
<1%
11 (275 б. п.)
<1%
12+ (300+ б.п.)
1%
0 (0 б.п.) 35.6%
1 (25 б.п.) 30%
2 (50 бп) 19%
3 (75 б.п.) 7%
$19,618,135 Обс.
$19,618,135 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 б.п.)
$3,261,777 Обс.
36%
1 (25 б.п.)
$1,050,313 Обс.
30%
2 (50 бп)
$1,031,198 Обс.
19%
3 (75 б.п.)
$949,097 Обс.
7%
4 (100 б.п.)
$978,069 Обс.
4%
5 (125 б.п.)
$1,085,876 Обс.
1%
6 (150 б.п.)
$2,124,539 Обс.
1%
7 (175 б.п.)
$955,711 Обс.
<1%
8 (200 б.п.)
$1,244,042 Обс.
<1%
9 (225 б.п.)
$1,250,955 Обс.
<1%
10 (250 б.п.)
$1,740,995 Обс.
<1%
11 (275 б. п.)
$2,097,725 Обс.
<1%
12+ (300+ б.п.)
$1,848,251 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Trader sentiment on Polymarket remains tightly contested between zero (35%) and one (29.5%) Fed rate cuts—or 0 and 25 basis points—in 2026, as persistent inflation pressures from oil shocks tied to the Iran conflict offset the March FOMC dot plot's median projection of a single cut to 3.4% by year-end. The Fed held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% on March 18 amid hotter-than-expected March CPI and elevated core PCE, with minutes revealing openness to hikes among some officials. Robust labor markets, evidenced by April 9 jobless claims at 219,000, bolster the no-cut view, while Deutsche Bank's April 17 forecast of unchanged rates through 2026 reinforces caution. Upcoming April 28-29 FOMC and May CPI release loom as pivotal catalysts that could tip the balance.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
Обсяг
$19,618,135Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Trader sentiment on Polymarket remains tightly contested between zero (35%) and one (29.5%) Fed rate cuts—or 0 and 25 basis points—in 2026, as persistent inflation pressures from oil shocks tied to the Iran conflict offset the March FOMC dot plot's median projection of a single cut to 3.4% by year-end. The Fed held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% on March 18 amid hotter-than-expected March CPI and elevated core PCE, with minutes revealing openness to hikes among some officials. Robust labor markets, evidenced by April 9 jobless claims at 219,000, bolster the no-cut view, while Deutsche Bank's April 17 forecast of unchanged rates through 2026 reinforces caution. Upcoming April 28-29 FOMC and May CPI release loom as pivotal catalysts that could tip the balance.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Обсяг
$19,618,135Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment on Polymarket remains tightly contested between zero (35%) and one (29.5%) Fed rate cuts—or 0 and 25 basis points—in 2026, as persistent inflation pressures from oil shocks tied to the Iran conflict offset the March FOMC dot plot's median projection of a single cut to 3.4% by year-end. The Fed held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% on March 18 amid hotter-than-expected March CPI and elevated core PCE, with minutes revealing openness to hikes among some officials. Robust labor markets, evidenced by April 9 jobless claims at 219,000, bolster the no-cut view, while Deutsche Bank's April 17 forecast of unchanged rates through 2026 reinforces caution. Upcoming April 28-29 FOMC and May CPI release loom as pivotal catalysts that could tip the balance.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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