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Економ·Джером Пауелл

Що вдарить по ставці ФРС до 2027 року?

Market icon
Економ·Джером Пауелл

Що вдарить по ставці ФРС до 2027 року?

$1,350,466 Обс.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$1,350,466 Обс.

Polymarket

↑ 5,5%

$43,964 Обс.

6%

↑ 5,25%

$139,602 Обс.

4%

↑ 5,0%

$11,758 Обс.

5%

↑ 4,75%

$70,143 Обс.

4%

↑ 4,5%

$13,865 Обс.

6%

↑ 4,25%

$22,844 Обс.

8%

↓ 3,25%

$56,441 Обс.

70%

↓ 3,0%

$235,904 Обс.

30%

↓ 2,75%

$268,128 Обс.

15%

↓ 2,5%

$180,136 Обс.

7%

↓ 2,25%

$23,063 Обс.

8%

↓ 2,0%

$15,119 Обс.

7%

↓ 1,75%

$7,427 Обс.

7%

↓ 1,5%

$24,878 Обс.

7%

↓ 1,25%

$938 Обс.

4%

↓ 1,0%

$1,761 Обс.

7%

↓ 0,75%

$388 Обс.

8%

↓ 0,5%

$95,052 Обс.

4%

↓ 0,25%

$119,265 Обс.

5%

↓ 0%

$10,784 Обс.

3%

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 100% implied probability that the Fed funds lower bound will reach 3.5% or below before 2027, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus for modest policy easing amid balanced risks. The federal funds target remains at 3.5%-3.75% following the March 17-18 FOMC's decision to hold steady for a second meeting, as March CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4% on Middle East conflict-driven oil shocks—while core PCE lingers near 3.0%. Minutes released April 8 underscore elevated uncertainty, downside employment risks at 4.3% unemployment, and upside inflation pressures, but affirm a data-dependent path with potential 2026 cuts if progress resumes. Traders eye the April 28-29 FOMC for steady rates, with June 16-17 as the next key catalyst.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Обсяг
$1,350,466
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Nov 18, 2025, 3:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 100% implied probability that the Fed funds lower bound will reach 3.5% or below before 2027, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus for modest policy easing amid balanced risks. The federal funds target remains at 3.5%-3.75% following the March 17-18 FOMC's decision to hold steady for a second meeting, as March CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4% on Middle East conflict-driven oil shocks—while core PCE lingers near 3.0%. Minutes released April 8 underscore elevated uncertainty, downside employment risks at 4.3% unemployment, and upside inflation pressures, but affirm a data-dependent path with potential 2026 cuts if progress resumes. Traders eye the April 28-29 FOMC for steady rates, with June 16-17 as the next key catalyst.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Обсяг
$1,350,466
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Nov 18, 2025, 3:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.

Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«Що вдарить по ставці ФРС до 2027 року?» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket з 21 можливими результатами, де трейдери купують і продають акції залежно від того, що, на їхню думку, станеться. Поточний лідер — «↓ 3,5%» з 100%, далі «↓ 3,25%» з 70%. Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

Станом на сьогодні, «Що вдарить по ставці ФРС до 2027 року?» згенерував $1.4 million загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку Nov 18, 2025. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.

Щоб торгувати на «Що вдарить по ставці ФРС до 2027 року?», перегляньте 21 доступних результатів на цій сторінці. Кожен результат відображає поточну ціну — ймовірність ринку. Оберіть результат, оберіть «Так» чи «Ні», введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ваш вибір правильний при вирішенні, акції «Так» виплачують $1. Якщо ні — $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточний фаворит для «Що вдарить по ставці ФРС до 2027 року?» — «↓ 3,5%» з 100%. Наступний — «↓ 3,25%» з 70%. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі, коли трейдери купують і продають акції. Слідкуйте за змінами шансів з появою нової інформації.

Правила вирішення для «Що вдарить по ставці ФРС до 2027 року?» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.