Elevated inflation readings, particularly the April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since mid-2023 and fueled by energy price spikes from Middle East developments—combined with a resilient labor market featuring steady payrolls and 4.3% unemployment, have anchored trader consensus around a Pause–Pause–Pause path for the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings at the prevailing 98% market-implied odds. The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% since April, consistent with FOMC communications signaling a need to hold policy restrictive longer amid sticky price pressures and geopolitical uncertainty. The May CPI release on June 10 and updated economic projections at the June 16-17 meeting represent the primary near-term catalysts that could shift implied probabilities, though a sharp disinflation surprise would be required to meaningfully alter the current hold outlook.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоПауза–Пауза–Пауза 98.0%
Пауза–Пауза–Зниження 1.9%
Інше <1%
$1,354,953 Обс.
$1,354,953 Обс.
Jun 17, 2026
Пауза–Пауза–Пауза
98%
Пауза–Пауза–Зниження
2%
Інше
<1%
Пауза–Пауза–Пауза 98.0%
Пауза–Пауза–Зниження 1.9%
Інше <1%
$1,354,953 Обс.
$1,354,953 Обс.
Jun 17, 2026
Пауза–Пауза–Пауза
$155,584 Обс.
98%
Пауза–Пауза–Зниження
$157,129 Обс.
2%
Інше
$296,899 Обс.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation readings, particularly the April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since mid-2023 and fueled by energy price spikes from Middle East developments—combined with a resilient labor market featuring steady payrolls and 4.3% unemployment, have anchored trader consensus around a Pause–Pause–Pause path for the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings at the prevailing 98% market-implied odds. The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% since April, consistent with FOMC communications signaling a need to hold policy restrictive longer amid sticky price pressures and geopolitical uncertainty. The May CPI release on June 10 and updated economic projections at the June 16-17 meeting represent the primary near-term catalysts that could shift implied probabilities, though a sharp disinflation surprise would be required to meaningfully alter the current hold outlook.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Ринок відкрито: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Обсяг
$1,354,953Дата завершення
Jun 17, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation readings, particularly the April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since mid-2023 and fueled by energy price spikes from Middle East developments—combined with a resilient labor market featuring steady payrolls and 4.3% unemployment, have anchored trader consensus around a Pause–Pause–Pause path for the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings at the prevailing 98% market-implied odds. The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% since April, consistent with FOMC communications signaling a need to hold policy restrictive longer amid sticky price pressures and geopolitical uncertainty. The May CPI release on June 10 and updated economic projections at the June 16-17 meeting represent the primary near-term catalysts that could shift implied probabilities, though a sharp disinflation surprise would be required to meaningfully alter the current hold outlook.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Обсяг
$1,354,953Дата завершення
Jun 17, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Elevated inflation readings, particularly the April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since mid-2023 and fueled by energy price spikes from Middle East developments—combined with a resilient labor market featuring steady payrolls and 4.3% unemployment, have anchored trader consensus around a Pause–Pause–Pause path for the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings at the prevailing 98% market-implied odds. The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% since April, consistent with FOMC communications signaling a need to hold policy restrictive longer amid sticky price pressures and geopolitical uncertainty. The May CPI release on June 10 and updated economic projections at the June 16-17 meeting represent the primary near-term catalysts that could shift implied probabilities, though a sharp disinflation surprise would be required to meaningfully alter the current hold outlook.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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