Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining steady federal funds rates—currently 3.5%-3.75%—across its March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, driven by reaccelerating inflation and resilient labor conditions. The March 17-18 decision confirmed a pause, reinforced by March CPI climbing to 3.3% year-over-year (from 2.4%), propelled by a 10.9% energy surge from geopolitical oil shocks near $100 per barrel. Nonfarm payrolls expanded 178,000 in March, easing unemployment to 4.3%, while FOMC minutes highlighted openness to hikes amid elevated inflation outlooks. Deutsche Bank and JPMorgan forecasts align with prolonged holds. Upcoming April 28-29 meeting looms as the key test.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоПауза–Пауза–Пауза 90%
Пауза–Пауза–Зниження 8%
Інше 1.4%
Пауза–Зниження–Пауза 1.1%
$906,625 Обс.
$906,625 Обс.
Jun 17, 2026
Пауза–Пауза–Пауза
90%
Пауза–Пауза–Зниження
8%
Інше
1%
Пауза–Зниження–Пауза
1%
Пауза–Зниження–Зниження
1%
Пауза–Пауза–Пауза 90%
Пауза–Пауза–Зниження 8%
Інше 1.4%
Пауза–Зниження–Пауза 1.1%
$906,625 Обс.
$906,625 Обс.
Jun 17, 2026
Пауза–Пауза–Пауза
$32,008 Обс.
90%
Пауза–Пауза–Зниження
$15,253 Обс.
8%
Інше
$216,585 Обс.
1%
Пауза–Зниження–Пауза
$132,549 Обс.
1%
Пауза–Зниження–Зниження
$510,230 Обс.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining steady federal funds rates—currently 3.5%-3.75%—across its March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, driven by reaccelerating inflation and resilient labor conditions. The March 17-18 decision confirmed a pause, reinforced by March CPI climbing to 3.3% year-over-year (from 2.4%), propelled by a 10.9% energy surge from geopolitical oil shocks near $100 per barrel. Nonfarm payrolls expanded 178,000 in March, easing unemployment to 4.3%, while FOMC minutes highlighted openness to hikes amid elevated inflation outlooks. Deutsche Bank and JPMorgan forecasts align with prolonged holds. Upcoming April 28-29 meeting looms as the key test.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Ринок відкрито: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Обсяг
$906,625Дата завершення
Jun 17, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining steady federal funds rates—currently 3.5%-3.75%—across its March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, driven by reaccelerating inflation and resilient labor conditions. The March 17-18 decision confirmed a pause, reinforced by March CPI climbing to 3.3% year-over-year (from 2.4%), propelled by a 10.9% energy surge from geopolitical oil shocks near $100 per barrel. Nonfarm payrolls expanded 178,000 in March, easing unemployment to 4.3%, while FOMC minutes highlighted openness to hikes amid elevated inflation outlooks. Deutsche Bank and JPMorgan forecasts align with prolonged holds. Upcoming April 28-29 meeting looms as the key test.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Обсяг
$906,625Дата завершення
Jun 17, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining steady federal funds rates—currently 3.5%-3.75%—across its March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, driven by reaccelerating inflation and resilient labor conditions. The March 17-18 decision confirmed a pause, reinforced by March CPI climbing to 3.3% year-over-year (from 2.4%), propelled by a 10.9% energy surge from geopolitical oil shocks near $100 per barrel. Nonfarm payrolls expanded 178,000 in March, easing unemployment to 4.3%, while FOMC minutes highlighted openness to hikes amid elevated inflation outlooks. Deutsche Bank and JPMorgan forecasts align with prolonged holds. Upcoming April 28-29 meeting looms as the key test.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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