Recent May 2026 CPI data, showing a 0.5% monthly rise and 4.2% year-over-year acceleration—the highest since 2023, fueled by energy prices—has reinforced trader expectations for Federal Reserve caution, underpinning the 71.5% implied probability of pause–pause–pause across the June 16–17, July 28–29, and September 15–16 meetings. With the unemployment rate at 4.3% and core inflation also edging higher to 2.9%, market-implied odds reflect a data-dependent policy stance holding the federal funds rate steady amid elevated price pressures, consistent with recent FOMC communications emphasizing inflation risks over premature easing. The June meeting, just days away and paired with updated economic projections, serves as the immediate catalyst, while subdued cut pricing in CME FedWatch tools and comparable instruments highlights limited scope for shifts unless subsequent releases materially alter the inflation trajectory.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоFed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Pause–Pause–Pause 72%
Other 13%
Pause–Pause–Cut 10.7%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.8%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 16, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
1%
Cut–Cut–Pause
<1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
72%
Pause–Pause–Cut
11%
Pause–Cut–Pause
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
13%
Pause–Pause–Pause 72%
Other 13%
Pause–Pause–Cut 10.7%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.8%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 16, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
$488 Обс.
1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$540 Обс.
1%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$340 Обс.
<1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$270 Обс.
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$1,103 Обс.
72%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$331 Обс.
11%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$230 Обс.
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$276 Обс.
1%
Other
$318 Обс.
13%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent May 2026 CPI data, showing a 0.5% monthly rise and 4.2% year-over-year acceleration—the highest since 2023, fueled by energy prices—has reinforced trader expectations for Federal Reserve caution, underpinning the 71.5% implied probability of pause–pause–pause across the June 16–17, July 28–29, and September 15–16 meetings. With the unemployment rate at 4.3% and core inflation also edging higher to 2.9%, market-implied odds reflect a data-dependent policy stance holding the federal funds rate steady amid elevated price pressures, consistent with recent FOMC communications emphasizing inflation risks over premature easing. The June meeting, just days away and paired with updated economic projections, serves as the immediate catalyst, while subdued cut pricing in CME FedWatch tools and comparable instruments highlights limited scope for shifts unless subsequent releases materially alter the inflation trajectory.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Ринок відкрито: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Обсяг
$3,896Дата завершення
Sep 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent May 2026 CPI data, showing a 0.5% monthly rise and 4.2% year-over-year acceleration—the highest since 2023, fueled by energy prices—has reinforced trader expectations for Federal Reserve caution, underpinning the 71.5% implied probability of pause–pause–pause across the June 16–17, July 28–29, and September 15–16 meetings. With the unemployment rate at 4.3% and core inflation also edging higher to 2.9%, market-implied odds reflect a data-dependent policy stance holding the federal funds rate steady amid elevated price pressures, consistent with recent FOMC communications emphasizing inflation risks over premature easing. The June meeting, just days away and paired with updated economic projections, serves as the immediate catalyst, while subdued cut pricing in CME FedWatch tools and comparable instruments highlights limited scope for shifts unless subsequent releases materially alter the inflation trajectory.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Обсяг
$3,896Дата завершення
Sep 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent May 2026 CPI data, showing a 0.5% monthly rise and 4.2% year-over-year acceleration—the highest since 2023, fueled by energy prices—has reinforced trader expectations for Federal Reserve caution, underpinning the 71.5% implied probability of pause–pause–pause across the June 16–17, July 28–29, and September 15–16 meetings. With the unemployment rate at 4.3% and core inflation also edging higher to 2.9%, market-implied odds reflect a data-dependent policy stance holding the federal funds rate steady amid elevated price pressures, consistent with recent FOMC communications emphasizing inflation risks over premature easing. The June meeting, just days away and paired with updated economic projections, serves as the immediate catalyst, while subdued cut pricing in CME FedWatch tools and comparable instruments highlights limited scope for shifts unless subsequent releases materially alter the inflation trajectory.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання