Persistent inflation pressures, including May 2026 CPI at 4.2% year-over-year with core measures near 2.9% amid energy price surges tied to geopolitical tensions, underpin the 69.5% market-implied odds for Pause–Pause–Pause across the June 16-17, July 28-29, and September 15-16 FOMC meetings. Steady labor market data, with May nonfarm payrolls at 172,000 and unemployment at 4.3%, alongside April FOMC minutes highlighting potential policy firming if disinflation stalls, reinforce trader consensus for holding the federal funds rate at the 3.50%-3.75% range. Recent economist surveys showing nearly 70% expecting no cuts through year-end align with these probabilities, while limited futures pricing for easing reflects caution ahead of the imminent June decision and subsequent data releases.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоFed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Pause–Pause–Pause 70%
Pause–Pause–Cut 11.6%
Other 9%
Pause–Cut–Pause 2.1%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 16, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
<1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
1%
Cut–Cut–Pause
<1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
70%
Pause–Pause–Cut
12%
Pause–Cut–Pause
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
9%
Pause–Pause–Pause 70%
Pause–Pause–Cut 11.6%
Other 9%
Pause–Cut–Pause 2.1%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 16, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
$419 Обс.
<1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$540 Обс.
1%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$337 Обс.
<1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$270 Обс.
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$1,103 Обс.
70%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$331 Обс.
12%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$230 Обс.
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$276 Обс.
1%
Other
$318 Обс.
9%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation pressures, including May 2026 CPI at 4.2% year-over-year with core measures near 2.9% amid energy price surges tied to geopolitical tensions, underpin the 69.5% market-implied odds for Pause–Pause–Pause across the June 16-17, July 28-29, and September 15-16 FOMC meetings. Steady labor market data, with May nonfarm payrolls at 172,000 and unemployment at 4.3%, alongside April FOMC minutes highlighting potential policy firming if disinflation stalls, reinforce trader consensus for holding the federal funds rate at the 3.50%-3.75% range. Recent economist surveys showing nearly 70% expecting no cuts through year-end align with these probabilities, while limited futures pricing for easing reflects caution ahead of the imminent June decision and subsequent data releases.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Ринок відкрито: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Обсяг
$3,825Дата завершення
Sep 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation pressures, including May 2026 CPI at 4.2% year-over-year with core measures near 2.9% amid energy price surges tied to geopolitical tensions, underpin the 69.5% market-implied odds for Pause–Pause–Pause across the June 16-17, July 28-29, and September 15-16 FOMC meetings. Steady labor market data, with May nonfarm payrolls at 172,000 and unemployment at 4.3%, alongside April FOMC minutes highlighting potential policy firming if disinflation stalls, reinforce trader consensus for holding the federal funds rate at the 3.50%-3.75% range. Recent economist surveys showing nearly 70% expecting no cuts through year-end align with these probabilities, while limited futures pricing for easing reflects caution ahead of the imminent June decision and subsequent data releases.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Обсяг
$3,825Дата завершення
Sep 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation pressures, including May 2026 CPI at 4.2% year-over-year with core measures near 2.9% amid energy price surges tied to geopolitical tensions, underpin the 69.5% market-implied odds for Pause–Pause–Pause across the June 16-17, July 28-29, and September 15-16 FOMC meetings. Steady labor market data, with May nonfarm payrolls at 172,000 and unemployment at 4.3%, alongside April FOMC minutes highlighting potential policy firming if disinflation stalls, reinforce trader consensus for holding the federal funds rate at the 3.50%-3.75% range. Recent economist surveys showing nearly 70% expecting no cuts through year-end align with these probabilities, while limited futures pricing for easing reflects caution ahead of the imminent June decision and subsequent data releases.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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