Recent inflation data exceeding consensus, including elevated core CPI and PCE readings, combined with robust August nonfarm payrolls, have reinforced trader expectations for a firmer Fed policy stance into 2027 under Chair Kevin Warsh. With the federal funds target range at 3.50-3.75% and markets pricing elevated odds of a September 2026 hike, the January 2027 decision reflects a baseline of steady rates amid sticky price pressures above the 2% target. Hawkish FOMC communications and limited labor market slack support the 58% implied probability of no change, while a 25 basis point increase remains the primary alternative if disinflation stalls. Upcoming September and December meetings, along with further CPI and employment releases, represent key catalysts that could shift the rate path.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNo change 58%
25 bps increase 23%
25 bps decrease 14%
50+ bps decrease 5.0%
$71,033 Обс.
$71,033 Обс.
Jan 27, 2027
50+ bps decrease
5%
25 bps decrease
14%
No change
58%
25 bps increase
23%
50+ bps increase
2%
No change 58%
25 bps increase 23%
25 bps decrease 14%
50+ bps decrease 5.0%
$71,033 Обс.
$71,033 Обс.
Jan 27, 2027
50+ bps decrease
$13,983 Обс.
5%
25 bps decrease
$14,873 Обс.
14%
No change
$21,181 Обс.
58%
25 bps increase
$17,011 Обс.
23%
50+ bps increase
$3,985 Обс.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent inflation data exceeding consensus, including elevated core CPI and PCE readings, combined with robust August nonfarm payrolls, have reinforced trader expectations for a firmer Fed policy stance into 2027 under Chair Kevin Warsh. With the federal funds target range at 3.50-3.75% and markets pricing elevated odds of a September 2026 hike, the January 2027 decision reflects a baseline of steady rates amid sticky price pressures above the 2% target. Hawkish FOMC communications and limited labor market slack support the 58% implied probability of no change, while a 25 basis point increase remains the primary alternative if disinflation stalls. Upcoming September and December meetings, along with further CPI and employment releases, represent key catalysts that could shift the rate path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ET
Обсяг
$71,033Дата завершення
Jan 27, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent inflation data exceeding consensus, including elevated core CPI and PCE readings, combined with robust August nonfarm payrolls, have reinforced trader expectations for a firmer Fed policy stance into 2027 under Chair Kevin Warsh. With the federal funds target range at 3.50-3.75% and markets pricing elevated odds of a September 2026 hike, the January 2027 decision reflects a baseline of steady rates amid sticky price pressures above the 2% target. Hawkish FOMC communications and limited labor market slack support the 58% implied probability of no change, while a 25 basis point increase remains the primary alternative if disinflation stalls. Upcoming September and December meetings, along with further CPI and employment releases, represent key catalysts that could shift the rate path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Обсяг
$71,033Дата завершення
Jan 27, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent inflation data exceeding consensus, including elevated core CPI and PCE readings, combined with robust August nonfarm payrolls, have reinforced trader expectations for a firmer Fed policy stance into 2027 under Chair Kevin Warsh. With the federal funds target range at 3.50-3.75% and markets pricing elevated odds of a September 2026 hike, the January 2027 decision reflects a baseline of steady rates amid sticky price pressures above the 2% target. Hawkish FOMC communications and limited labor market slack support the 58% implied probability of no change, while a 25 basis point increase remains the primary alternative if disinflation stalls. Upcoming September and December meetings, along with further CPI and employment releases, represent key catalysts that could shift the rate path.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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