The 10-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.67–4.73% in late August 2026, reflects market-implied expectations for a higher neutral policy rate amid resilient growth and sticky inflation pressures. Under Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, the central bank has adopted a more hawkish stance, with futures pricing reduced odds of near-term easing and potential hikes if August CPI and nonfarm payrolls data due in early September exceed forecasts. Elevated fiscal deficits near 6% of GDP, rising Treasury coupon supply, and a firmer term premium have also lifted long-end yields, while AI-driven productivity gains support higher real rates. The September 15–16 FOMC meeting, with updated projections, and subsequent inflation releases represent key catalysts that could push yields toward or beyond the 2026 high of 4.75% before year-end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
$289,613 Обс.
Dec 30, 2026
4.8%
68%
5.0%
18%
5.2%
8%
5.5%
6%
5.7%
5%
6.0%
5%
$289,613 Обс.
4.8%
$60,422 Обс.
68%
5.0%
$82,723 Обс.
18%
5.2%
$26,427 Обс.
8%
5.5%
$5,918 Обс.
6%
5.7%
$4,298 Обс.
5%
6.0%
$3,539 Обс.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.67–4.73% in late August 2026, reflects market-implied expectations for a higher neutral policy rate amid resilient growth and sticky inflation pressures. Under Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, the central bank has adopted a more hawkish stance, with futures pricing reduced odds of near-term easing and potential hikes if August CPI and nonfarm payrolls data due in early September exceed forecasts. Elevated fiscal deficits near 6% of GDP, rising Treasury coupon supply, and a firmer term premium have also lifted long-end yields, while AI-driven productivity gains support higher real rates. The September 15–16 FOMC meeting, with updated projections, and subsequent inflation releases represent key catalysts that could push yields toward or beyond the 2026 high of 4.75% before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Ринок відкрито: Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ET
Обсяг
$289,613Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.67–4.73% in late August 2026, reflects market-implied expectations for a higher neutral policy rate amid resilient growth and sticky inflation pressures. Under Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, the central bank has adopted a more hawkish stance, with futures pricing reduced odds of near-term easing and potential hikes if August CPI and nonfarm payrolls data due in early September exceed forecasts. Elevated fiscal deficits near 6% of GDP, rising Treasury coupon supply, and a firmer term premium have also lifted long-end yields, while AI-driven productivity gains support higher real rates. The September 15–16 FOMC meeting, with updated projections, and subsequent inflation releases represent key catalysts that could push yields toward or beyond the 2026 high of 4.75% before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Обсяг
$289,613Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...The 10-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.67–4.73% in late August 2026, reflects market-implied expectations for a higher neutral policy rate amid resilient growth and sticky inflation pressures. Under Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, the central bank has adopted a more hawkish stance, with futures pricing reduced odds of near-term easing and potential hikes if August CPI and nonfarm payrolls data due in early September exceed forecasts. Elevated fiscal deficits near 6% of GDP, rising Treasury coupon supply, and a firmer term premium have also lifted long-end yields, while AI-driven productivity gains support higher real rates. The September 15–16 FOMC meeting, with updated projections, and subsequent inflation releases represent key catalysts that could push yields toward or beyond the 2026 high of 4.75% before year-end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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