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Політика·Первинні

KY-04 Republican Primary Winner

Market icon
Політика·Первинні

KY-04 Republican Primary Winner

Thomas Massie 70%

Ed Gallrein 30.6%

Nicole Lee Ethington <1%

Robert Wells Jr. <1%

Polymarket

$281,876 Обс.

Thomas Massie 70%

Ed Gallrein 30.6%

Nicole Lee Ethington <1%

Robert Wells Jr. <1%

Polymarket

$281,876 Обс.

Thomas Massie

$186,938 Обс.

70%

Ed Gallrein

$78,635 Обс.

31%

Nicole Lee Ethington

$16,304 Обс.

<1%

Robert Wells Jr.

$0 Обс.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie holds a trader consensus of 69.5% to win Kentucky's 4th Congressional District Republican primary on May 19, driven by recent polls showing him ahead of Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein by 4–9 points among likely GOP voters, including a Quantus Insights survey (Massie 47%, Gallrein 38%) and Big Data Poll (Massie +4). Massie's Q1 fundraising haul of $2.5 million from over 20,600 donors bolsters his incumbency advantage in the solidly conservative district, despite Gallrein's March rally boost from President Trump's northern Kentucky visit and ongoing ad war labeling Massie disloyal. Minor candidates Nicole Lee Ethington and Robert Wells Jr. trail far behind, with negligible support. Upcoming early voting could shift dynamics in this competitive race testing GOP factions.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Обсяг
$281,876
Дата завершення
May 19, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Dec 1, 2025, 4:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie holds a trader consensus of 69.5% to win Kentucky's 4th Congressional District Republican primary on May 19, driven by recent polls showing him ahead of Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein by 4–9 points among likely GOP voters, including a Quantus Insights survey (Massie 47%, Gallrein 38%) and Big Data Poll (Massie +4). Massie's Q1 fundraising haul of $2.5 million from over 20,600 donors bolsters his incumbency advantage in the solidly conservative district, despite Gallrein's March rally boost from President Trump's northern Kentucky visit and ongoing ad war labeling Massie disloyal. Minor candidates Nicole Lee Ethington and Robert Wells Jr. trail far behind, with negligible support. Upcoming early voting could shift dynamics in this competitive race testing GOP factions.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Обсяг
$281,876
Дата завершення
May 19, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Dec 1, 2025, 4:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«KY-04 Republican Primary Winner» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket з 4 можливими результатами, де трейдери купують і продають акції залежно від того, що, на їхню думку, станеться. Поточний лідер — «Thomas Massie» з 70%, далі «Ed Gallrein» з 31%. Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

Станом на сьогодні, «KY-04 Republican Primary Winner» згенерував $281.9K загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку Dec 1, 2025. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.

Щоб торгувати на «KY-04 Republican Primary Winner», перегляньте 4 доступних результатів на цій сторінці. Кожен результат відображає поточну ціну — ймовірність ринку. Оберіть результат, оберіть «Так» чи «Ні», введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ваш вибір правильний при вирішенні, акції «Так» виплачують $1. Якщо ні — $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточний фаворит для «KY-04 Republican Primary Winner» — «Thomas Massie» з 70%. Наступний — «Ed Gallrein» з 31%. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі, коли трейдери купують і продають акції. Слідкуйте за змінами шансів з появою нової інформації.

Правила вирішення для «KY-04 Republican Primary Winner» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.