Météo-France's latest AROME model run and ensemble forecasts from ECMWF project a precise nocturnal minimum of 14°C in Paris on May 3, driving trader consensus to full certainty on this outcome amid a stable mild weather pattern over Île-de-France. This positioning stems from the past week's pleasant conditions (8–26°C range) continuing under light southerly winds and partial cloud cover, which limit radiative cooling despite typical May averages around 9–11°C lows. Morning observations already exceeding 13°C further solidify the market-implied odds. Realistic challenges include unanticipated clearing skies overnight enabling sharper cooling to 13°C or below, though current guidance deems this improbable; final station data from Paris-Montsouris or Orly will resolve post-midnight.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Paris on May 3?
Lowest temperature in Paris on May 3?
14°C 100.0%
8°C or below <1%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
$12,747 Обс.
$12,747 Обс.
May 3, 2026
8°C or below
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
Yes
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C or higher
No
14°C 100.0%
8°C or below <1%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
$12,747 Обс.
$12,747 Обс.
May 3, 2026
8°C or below
$424 Обс.
No
9°C
$899 Обс.
No
10°C
$457 Обс.
No
11°C
$633 Обс.
No
12°C
$809 Обс.
No
13°C
$1,029 Обс.
No
14°C
$1,950 Обс.
Yes
15°C
$1,191 Обс.
No
16°C
$1,692 Обс.
No
17°C
$1,913 Обс.
No
18°C or higher
$1,750 Обс.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Météo-France's latest AROME model run and ensemble forecasts from ECMWF project a precise nocturnal minimum of 14°C in Paris on May 3, driving trader consensus to full certainty on this outcome amid a stable mild weather pattern over Île-de-France. This positioning stems from the past week's pleasant conditions (8–26°C range) continuing under light southerly winds and partial cloud cover, which limit radiative cooling despite typical May averages around 9–11°C lows. Morning observations already exceeding 13°C further solidify the market-implied odds. Realistic challenges include unanticipated clearing skies overnight enabling sharper cooling to 13°C or below, though current guidance deems this improbable; final station data from Paris-Montsouris or Orly will resolve post-midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: May 1, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Обсяг
$12,747Дата завершення
May 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 1, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Météo-France's latest AROME model run and ensemble forecasts from ECMWF project a precise nocturnal minimum of 14°C in Paris on May 3, driving trader consensus to full certainty on this outcome amid a stable mild weather pattern over Île-de-France. This positioning stems from the past week's pleasant conditions (8–26°C range) continuing under light southerly winds and partial cloud cover, which limit radiative cooling despite typical May averages around 9–11°C lows. Morning observations already exceeding 13°C further solidify the market-implied odds. Realistic challenges include unanticipated clearing skies overnight enabling sharper cooling to 13°C or below, though current guidance deems this improbable; final station data from Paris-Montsouris or Orly will resolve post-midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$12,747Дата завершення
May 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 1, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
Météo-France's latest AROME model run and ensemble forecasts from ECMWF project a precise nocturnal minimum of 14°C in Paris on May 3, driving trader consensus to full certainty on this outcome amid a stable mild weather pattern over Île-de-France. This positioning stems from the past week's pleasant conditions (8–26°C range) continuing under light southerly winds and partial cloud cover, which limit radiative cooling despite typical May averages around 9–11°C lows. Morning observations already exceeding 13°C further solidify the market-implied odds. Realistic challenges include unanticipated clearing skies overnight enabling sharper cooling to 13°C or below, though current guidance deems this improbable; final station data from Paris-Montsouris or Orly will resolve post-midnight.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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