Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a lowest temperature of 14°C in Shanghai on May 4, 2026, reflecting authoritative observational data from the Shanghai Meteorological Observatory and corroborating bulletins from agencies like the Hong Kong Observatory reporting a daily low of 14°C amid overcast-to-sunny conditions. This positioning stems from early-morning measurements capturing the minimum before daytime warming to around 25°C under light southerly winds, consistent with spring climatology where May lows average 15–16°C but vary with cloud cover and urban heat effects. Model ensembles from global forecasts, including those on timeanddate.com and weather.com.cn, aligned precisely on this outcome by midday. Realistic challenges would require unexpected radiational cooling overnight from prolonged clear skies, though current trajectories and residual cloudiness render this highly unlikely before market resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Shanghai on May 4?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 4?
14°C 100.0%
8°C or below <1%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
$12,197 Обс.
$12,197 Обс.
May 4, 2026
8°C or below
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
Yes
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C or higher
No
14°C 100.0%
8°C or below <1%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
$12,197 Обс.
$12,197 Обс.
May 4, 2026
8°C or below
$553 Обс.
No
9°C
$522 Обс.
No
10°C
$816 Обс.
No
11°C
$771 Обс.
No
12°C
$824 Обс.
No
13°C
$2,700 Обс.
No
14°C
$3,829 Обс.
Yes
15°C
$628 Обс.
No
16°C
$634 Обс.
No
17°C
$500 Обс.
No
18°C or higher
$419 Обс.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a lowest temperature of 14°C in Shanghai on May 4, 2026, reflecting authoritative observational data from the Shanghai Meteorological Observatory and corroborating bulletins from agencies like the Hong Kong Observatory reporting a daily low of 14°C amid overcast-to-sunny conditions. This positioning stems from early-morning measurements capturing the minimum before daytime warming to around 25°C under light southerly winds, consistent with spring climatology where May lows average 15–16°C but vary with cloud cover and urban heat effects. Model ensembles from global forecasts, including those on timeanddate.com and weather.com.cn, aligned precisely on this outcome by midday. Realistic challenges would require unexpected radiational cooling overnight from prolonged clear skies, though current trajectories and residual cloudiness render this highly unlikely before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: May 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Обсяг
$12,197Дата завершення
May 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a lowest temperature of 14°C in Shanghai on May 4, 2026, reflecting authoritative observational data from the Shanghai Meteorological Observatory and corroborating bulletins from agencies like the Hong Kong Observatory reporting a daily low of 14°C amid overcast-to-sunny conditions. This positioning stems from early-morning measurements capturing the minimum before daytime warming to around 25°C under light southerly winds, consistent with spring climatology where May lows average 15–16°C but vary with cloud cover and urban heat effects. Model ensembles from global forecasts, including those on timeanddate.com and weather.com.cn, aligned precisely on this outcome by midday. Realistic challenges would require unexpected radiational cooling overnight from prolonged clear skies, though current trajectories and residual cloudiness render this highly unlikely before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$12,197Дата завершення
May 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a lowest temperature of 14°C in Shanghai on May 4, 2026, reflecting authoritative observational data from the Shanghai Meteorological Observatory and corroborating bulletins from agencies like the Hong Kong Observatory reporting a daily low of 14°C amid overcast-to-sunny conditions. This positioning stems from early-morning measurements capturing the minimum before daytime warming to around 25°C under light southerly winds, consistent with spring climatology where May lows average 15–16°C but vary with cloud cover and urban heat effects. Model ensembles from global forecasts, including those on timeanddate.com and weather.com.cn, aligned precisely on this outcome by midday. Realistic challenges would require unexpected radiational cooling overnight from prolonged clear skies, though current trajectories and residual cloudiness render this highly unlikely before market resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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