Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to 100% implied probability for a lowest temperature of 14°C at Tokyo's Haneda Airport Station on May 5, 2026, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency observations recording this minimum early in the day amid clear skies and stable high-pressure conditions. This aligns precisely with the climatological daily normal minimum of 13.6°C for early May, supported by forecast model consensus from JMA showing no cold air advection or frontal activity to drive further cooling. Overnight radiative cooling is limited by light winds and urban heat island effects in Tokyo. While an improbable mesoscale temperature drop from unexpected clear-sky inversions could challenge this before resolution, current data and historical May patterns indicate overwhelming scientific support for 14°C as the final reading, with JMA's end-of-day confirmation pending.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Tokyo on May 5?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 5?
14°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$57,705 Обс.
$57,705 Обс.
May 5, 2026
10°C or below
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
Yes
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C or higher
No
14°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$57,705 Обс.
$57,705 Обс.
May 5, 2026
10°C or below
$18,263 Обс.
No
11°C
$16,410 Обс.
No
12°C
$13,365 Обс.
No
13°C
$1,319 Обс.
No
14°C
$3,633 Обс.
Yes
15°C
$596 Обс.
No
16°C
$724 Обс.
No
17°C
$1,100 Обс.
No
18°C
$941 Обс.
No
19°C
$886 Обс.
No
20°C or higher
$467 Обс.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to 100% implied probability for a lowest temperature of 14°C at Tokyo's Haneda Airport Station on May 5, 2026, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency observations recording this minimum early in the day amid clear skies and stable high-pressure conditions. This aligns precisely with the climatological daily normal minimum of 13.6°C for early May, supported by forecast model consensus from JMA showing no cold air advection or frontal activity to drive further cooling. Overnight radiative cooling is limited by light winds and urban heat island effects in Tokyo. While an improbable mesoscale temperature drop from unexpected clear-sky inversions could challenge this before resolution, current data and historical May patterns indicate overwhelming scientific support for 14°C as the final reading, with JMA's end-of-day confirmation pending.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: May 3, 2026, 12:21 AM ET
Обсяг
$57,705Дата завершення
May 5, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 3, 2026, 12:21 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to 100% implied probability for a lowest temperature of 14°C at Tokyo's Haneda Airport Station on May 5, 2026, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency observations recording this minimum early in the day amid clear skies and stable high-pressure conditions. This aligns precisely with the climatological daily normal minimum of 13.6°C for early May, supported by forecast model consensus from JMA showing no cold air advection or frontal activity to drive further cooling. Overnight radiative cooling is limited by light winds and urban heat island effects in Tokyo. While an improbable mesoscale temperature drop from unexpected clear-sky inversions could challenge this before resolution, current data and historical May patterns indicate overwhelming scientific support for 14°C as the final reading, with JMA's end-of-day confirmation pending.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$57,705Дата завершення
May 5, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 3, 2026, 12:21 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to 100% implied probability for a lowest temperature of 14°C at Tokyo's Haneda Airport Station on May 5, 2026, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency observations recording this minimum early in the day amid clear skies and stable high-pressure conditions. This aligns precisely with the climatological daily normal minimum of 13.6°C for early May, supported by forecast model consensus from JMA showing no cold air advection or frontal activity to drive further cooling. Overnight radiative cooling is limited by light winds and urban heat island effects in Tokyo. While an improbable mesoscale temperature drop from unexpected clear-sky inversions could challenge this before resolution, current data and historical May patterns indicate overwhelming scientific support for 14°C as the final reading, with JMA's end-of-day confirmation pending.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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