Trader consensus has locked in a 100% implied probability on 15°C as Tokyo's lowest temperature on May 6, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) nowcasts and real-time observations from official stations like Haneda, where morning readings started near 18°C under persistent cloud cover that limits radiative cooling overnight. Current evening temperatures hover around 17–18°C with mostly cloudy skies and light winds, aligning with model ensembles projecting a minimum in the mid-teens Celsius—consistent with May climatological norms of 13.6°C daily lows but elevated by recent frontal passages stabilizing the boundary layer. Realistic challenges include unexpected sky clearing after midnight, potentially dropping 1–2°C via enhanced infrared loss, though high humidity and urban heat island effects in Tokyo make sub-14°C unlikely; final JMA data release post-midnight will resolve the market.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Tokyo on May 6?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 6?
15°C 100.0%
11°C or below <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$47,506 Обс.
$47,506 Обс.
May 6, 2026
11°C or below
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
Yes
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C or higher
No
15°C 100.0%
11°C or below <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$47,506 Обс.
$47,506 Обс.
May 6, 2026
11°C or below
$6,347 Обс.
No
12°C
$2,196 Обс.
No
13°C
$2,950 Обс.
No
14°C
$8,728 Обс.
No
15°C
$3,473 Обс.
Yes
16°C
$12,530 Обс.
No
17°C
$2,332 Обс.
No
18°C
$975 Обс.
No
19°C
$798 Обс.
No
20°C
$4,687 Обс.
No
21°C or higher
$2,491 Обс.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus has locked in a 100% implied probability on 15°C as Tokyo's lowest temperature on May 6, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) nowcasts and real-time observations from official stations like Haneda, where morning readings started near 18°C under persistent cloud cover that limits radiative cooling overnight. Current evening temperatures hover around 17–18°C with mostly cloudy skies and light winds, aligning with model ensembles projecting a minimum in the mid-teens Celsius—consistent with May climatological norms of 13.6°C daily lows but elevated by recent frontal passages stabilizing the boundary layer. Realistic challenges include unexpected sky clearing after midnight, potentially dropping 1–2°C via enhanced infrared loss, though high humidity and urban heat island effects in Tokyo make sub-14°C unlikely; final JMA data release post-midnight will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: May 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Обсяг
$47,506Дата завершення
May 6, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus has locked in a 100% implied probability on 15°C as Tokyo's lowest temperature on May 6, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) nowcasts and real-time observations from official stations like Haneda, where morning readings started near 18°C under persistent cloud cover that limits radiative cooling overnight. Current evening temperatures hover around 17–18°C with mostly cloudy skies and light winds, aligning with model ensembles projecting a minimum in the mid-teens Celsius—consistent with May climatological norms of 13.6°C daily lows but elevated by recent frontal passages stabilizing the boundary layer. Realistic challenges include unexpected sky clearing after midnight, potentially dropping 1–2°C via enhanced infrared loss, though high humidity and urban heat island effects in Tokyo make sub-14°C unlikely; final JMA data release post-midnight will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$47,506Дата завершення
May 6, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
Trader consensus has locked in a 100% implied probability on 15°C as Tokyo's lowest temperature on May 6, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) nowcasts and real-time observations from official stations like Haneda, where morning readings started near 18°C under persistent cloud cover that limits radiative cooling overnight. Current evening temperatures hover around 17–18°C with mostly cloudy skies and light winds, aligning with model ensembles projecting a minimum in the mid-teens Celsius—consistent with May climatological norms of 13.6°C daily lows but elevated by recent frontal passages stabilizing the boundary layer. Realistic challenges include unexpected sky clearing after midnight, potentially dropping 1–2°C via enhanced infrared loss, though high humidity and urban heat island effects in Tokyo make sub-14°C unlikely; final JMA data release post-midnight will resolve the market.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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