Ousted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro remains in U.S. custody in a New York high-security facility following his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces during a military operation in Caracas, facing federal narco-terrorism charges including cocaine importation conspiracy and weapons possession that carry potential life sentences. A March 26 Southern District of New York hearing saw Judge Alvin Hellerstein signal he would not dismiss the case amid disputes over unpaid legal fees from Venezuela, keeping pre-trial proceedings alive without a firm trial date. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty over jurisdictional challenges to the arrest's legality, head-of-state immunity claims, and possible plea deals or political interventions, balancing a 37.5% implied probability of 60+ years against 34% for no prison time; upcoming rulings on motions or evidentiary hearings could widen the gap.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено60+ 38%
No prison time 34%
40–60 16%
<20 5.7%
$497,262 Обс.
$497,262 Обс.
Dec 31, 2027
No prison time
34%
<20
6%
20–40
6%
40–60
16%
60+
38%
60+ 38%
No prison time 34%
40–60 16%
<20 5.7%
$497,262 Обс.
$497,262 Обс.
Dec 31, 2027
No prison time
$367,655 Обс.
34%
<20
$36,136 Обс.
6%
20–40
$47,129 Обс.
6%
40–60
$14,812 Обс.
16%
60+
$31,530 Обс.
38%
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ousted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro remains in U.S. custody in a New York high-security facility following his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces during a military operation in Caracas, facing federal narco-terrorism charges including cocaine importation conspiracy and weapons possession that carry potential life sentences. A March 26 Southern District of New York hearing saw Judge Alvin Hellerstein signal he would not dismiss the case amid disputes over unpaid legal fees from Venezuela, keeping pre-trial proceedings alive without a firm trial date. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty over jurisdictional challenges to the arrest's legality, head-of-state immunity claims, and possible plea deals or political interventions, balancing a 37.5% implied probability of 60+ years against 34% for no prison time; upcoming rulings on motions or evidentiary hearings could widen the gap.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ET
Обсяг
$497,262Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ousted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro remains in U.S. custody in a New York high-security facility following his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces during a military operation in Caracas, facing federal narco-terrorism charges including cocaine importation conspiracy and weapons possession that carry potential life sentences. A March 26 Southern District of New York hearing saw Judge Alvin Hellerstein signal he would not dismiss the case amid disputes over unpaid legal fees from Venezuela, keeping pre-trial proceedings alive without a firm trial date. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty over jurisdictional challenges to the arrest's legality, head-of-state immunity claims, and possible plea deals or political interventions, balancing a 37.5% implied probability of 60+ years against 34% for no prison time; upcoming rulings on motions or evidentiary hearings could widen the gap.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$497,262Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Ousted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro remains in U.S. custody in a New York high-security facility following his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces during a military operation in Caracas, facing federal narco-terrorism charges including cocaine importation conspiracy and weapons possession that carry potential life sentences. A March 26 Southern District of New York hearing saw Judge Alvin Hellerstein signal he would not dismiss the case amid disputes over unpaid legal fees from Venezuela, keeping pre-trial proceedings alive without a firm trial date. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty over jurisdictional challenges to the arrest's legality, head-of-state immunity claims, and possible plea deals or political interventions, balancing a 37.5% implied probability of 60+ years against 34% for no prison time; upcoming rulings on motions or evidentiary hearings could widen the gap.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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