**No qualifying events have occurred through mid-September 2026, keeping the market-implied probability of “No” near 80%.** None of the four resolution triggers—a U.S. Category 5 hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or ≥10 kt meteor strike—has been recorded so far this year. Historical baselines show these thresholds are infrequent: U.S. Category 5 landfalls average less than one per decade, VEI 6+ eruptions occur roughly once every 10–20 years globally, and 8.5+ earthquakes are even rarer. With only three-plus months remaining, official monitoring by the National Hurricane Center, USGS, and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program continues to show no imminent threats meeting the criteria, reinforcing trader consensus that the combined annual probability remains well below 50%.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
21% шанс
$246,739 Обс.
$246,739 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
21% шанс
$246,739 Обс.
$246,739 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
**No qualifying events have occurred through mid-September 2026, keeping the market-implied probability of “No” near 80%.** None of the four resolution triggers—a U.S. Category 5 hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or ≥10 kt meteor strike—has been recorded so far this year. Historical baselines show these thresholds are infrequent: U.S. Category 5 landfalls average less than one per decade, VEI 6+ eruptions occur roughly once every 10–20 years globally, and 8.5+ earthquakes are even rarer. With only three-plus months remaining, official monitoring by the National Hurricane Center, USGS, and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program continues to show no imminent threats meeting the criteria, reinforcing trader consensus that the combined annual probability remains well below 50%.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Ринок відкрито: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Обсяг
$246,739Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
**No qualifying events have occurred through mid-September 2026, keeping the market-implied probability of “No” near 80%.** None of the four resolution triggers—a U.S. Category 5 hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or ≥10 kt meteor strike—has been recorded so far this year. Historical baselines show these thresholds are infrequent: U.S. Category 5 landfalls average less than one per decade, VEI 6+ eruptions occur roughly once every 10–20 years globally, and 8.5+ earthquakes are even rarer. With only three-plus months remaining, official monitoring by the National Hurricane Center, USGS, and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program continues to show no imminent threats meeting the criteria, reinforcing trader consensus that the combined annual probability remains well below 50%.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Обсяг
$246,739Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...**No qualifying events have occurred through mid-September 2026, keeping the market-implied probability of “No” near 80%.** None of the four resolution triggers—a U.S. Category 5 hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or ≥10 kt meteor strike—has been recorded so far this year. Historical baselines show these thresholds are infrequent: U.S. Category 5 landfalls average less than one per decade, VEI 6+ eruptions occur roughly once every 10–20 years globally, and 8.5+ earthquakes are even rarer. With only three-plus months remaining, official monitoring by the National Hurricane Center, USGS, and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program continues to show no imminent threats meeting the criteria, reinforcing trader consensus that the combined annual probability remains well below 50%.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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