Microsoft’s June 2026 Build announcement of MAI-Thinking-1, its first in-house reasoning model, and August public preview on Microsoft Foundry set the baseline for trader expectations around a successor. The 35B-active-parameter MoE model, trained from scratch without distillation, delivers competitive math and SWE-Bench Pro results while emphasizing lower inference costs and enterprise controls. Traders focus on Microsoft’s accelerating MAI roadmap, including recent image and transcription updates, as evidence of rapid iteration aimed at reducing OpenAI reliance and strengthening Copilot and Azure positioning. Key near-term catalysts include expanded public access, Copilot integrations, new benchmark releases, and any signals from upcoming developer events that could confirm or delay a follow-on thinking model.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNew MAI thinking model released by...?
New MAI thinking model released by...?
НОВЕ
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
27%
December 31
49%
$489 Обс.
September 30
$188 Обс.
27%
December 31
$301 Обс.
49%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Microsoft’s June 2026 Build announcement of MAI-Thinking-1, its first in-house reasoning model, and August public preview on Microsoft Foundry set the baseline for trader expectations around a successor. The 35B-active-parameter MoE model, trained from scratch without distillation, delivers competitive math and SWE-Bench Pro results while emphasizing lower inference costs and enterprise controls. Traders focus on Microsoft’s accelerating MAI roadmap, including recent image and transcription updates, as evidence of rapid iteration aimed at reducing OpenAI reliance and strengthening Copilot and Azure positioning. Key near-term catalysts include expanded public access, Copilot integrations, new benchmark releases, and any signals from upcoming developer events that could confirm or delay a follow-on thinking model.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 11, 2026, 2:45 PM ET
Обсяг
$489Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jul 11, 2026, 2:45 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Microsoft’s June 2026 Build announcement of MAI-Thinking-1, its first in-house reasoning model, and August public preview on Microsoft Foundry set the baseline for trader expectations around a successor. The 35B-active-parameter MoE model, trained from scratch without distillation, delivers competitive math and SWE-Bench Pro results while emphasizing lower inference costs and enterprise controls. Traders focus on Microsoft’s accelerating MAI roadmap, including recent image and transcription updates, as evidence of rapid iteration aimed at reducing OpenAI reliance and strengthening Copilot and Azure positioning. Key near-term catalysts include expanded public access, Copilot integrations, new benchmark releases, and any signals from upcoming developer events that could confirm or delay a follow-on thinking model.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$489Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jul 11, 2026, 2:45 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Microsoft’s June 2026 Build announcement of MAI-Thinking-1, its first in-house reasoning model, and August public preview on Microsoft Foundry set the baseline for trader expectations around a successor. The 35B-active-parameter MoE model, trained from scratch without distillation, delivers competitive math and SWE-Bench Pro results while emphasizing lower inference costs and enterprise controls. Traders focus on Microsoft’s accelerating MAI roadmap, including recent image and transcription updates, as evidence of rapid iteration aimed at reducing OpenAI reliance and strengthening Copilot and Azure positioning. Key near-term catalysts include expanded public access, Copilot integrations, new benchmark releases, and any signals from upcoming developer events that could confirm or delay a follow-on thinking model.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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