Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement narrowing the Grok 4.7 timeline to roughly ten days—pointing to a September 12 target—remains the dominant catalyst for current trader sentiment, following the August 12 launch of the 1.5-trillion-parameter Grok 4.6. xAI’s supplemental training on unique SpaceX data and the jump to a 2.1-trillion-parameter base have fueled expectations of strong engineering and real-world performance gains over rivals, yet historical slippage in xAI windows and the absence of an official model ID, benchmarks, or pricing keep probabilities clustered tightly around mid-September dates. Competitive pressure from OpenAI’s imminent Astra release adds uncertainty, while the market’s modest premium on September 17 reflects trader caution around potential last-minute delays or integration hurdles typical of frontier large language model launches.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNext Grok Model (4.7+) released on...?
Next Grok Model (4.7+) released on...?
On or prior to September 9 44%
September 10 44%
September 11 44%
September 20 44%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 9, 2026
On or prior to September 9
44%
September 10
44%
September 11
44%
September 12
28%
September 13
21%
September 14
44%
September 15
28%
September 16
28%
September 17
28%
September 18
28%
September 19
38%
September 20
44%
September 21
44%
September 22
44%
September 23
44%
September 24
44%
September 25
26%
September 26
44%
September 27
24%
September 28
44%
September 29
43%
September 30
44%
No release by September 30
44%
On or prior to September 9 44%
September 10 44%
September 11 44%
September 20 44%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 9, 2026
On or prior to September 9
$0 Обс.
44%
September 10
$0 Обс.
44%
September 11
$0 Обс.
44%
September 12
$0 Обс.
28%
September 13
$0 Обс.
21%
September 14
$0 Обс.
44%
September 15
$0 Обс.
28%
September 16
$0 Обс.
28%
September 17
$0 Обс.
28%
September 18
$0 Обс.
28%
September 19
$0 Обс.
38%
September 20
$0 Обс.
44%
September 21
$0 Обс.
44%
September 22
$0 Обс.
44%
September 23
$0 Обс.
44%
September 24
$0 Обс.
44%
September 25
$0 Обс.
26%
September 26
$0 Обс.
44%
September 27
$0 Обс.
24%
September 28
$0 Обс.
44%
September 29
$0 Обс.
43%
September 30
$0 Обс.
44%
No release by September 30
$0 Обс.
44%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement narrowing the Grok 4.7 timeline to roughly ten days—pointing to a September 12 target—remains the dominant catalyst for current trader sentiment, following the August 12 launch of the 1.5-trillion-parameter Grok 4.6. xAI’s supplemental training on unique SpaceX data and the jump to a 2.1-trillion-parameter base have fueled expectations of strong engineering and real-world performance gains over rivals, yet historical slippage in xAI windows and the absence of an official model ID, benchmarks, or pricing keep probabilities clustered tightly around mid-September dates. Competitive pressure from OpenAI’s imminent Astra release adds uncertainty, while the market’s modest premium on September 17 reflects trader caution around potential last-minute delays or integration hurdles typical of frontier large language model launches.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ET
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Sep 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement narrowing the Grok 4.7 timeline to roughly ten days—pointing to a September 12 target—remains the dominant catalyst for current trader sentiment, following the August 12 launch of the 1.5-trillion-parameter Grok 4.6. xAI’s supplemental training on unique SpaceX data and the jump to a 2.1-trillion-parameter base have fueled expectations of strong engineering and real-world performance gains over rivals, yet historical slippage in xAI windows and the absence of an official model ID, benchmarks, or pricing keep probabilities clustered tightly around mid-September dates. Competitive pressure from OpenAI’s imminent Astra release adds uncertainty, while the market’s modest premium on September 17 reflects trader caution around potential last-minute delays or integration hurdles typical of frontier large language model launches.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Sep 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement narrowing the Grok 4.7 timeline to roughly ten days—pointing to a September 12 target—remains the dominant catalyst for current trader sentiment, following the August 12 launch of the 1.5-trillion-parameter Grok 4.6. xAI’s supplemental training on unique SpaceX data and the jump to a 2.1-trillion-parameter base have fueled expectations of strong engineering and real-world performance gains over rivals, yet historical slippage in xAI windows and the absence of an official model ID, benchmarks, or pricing keep probabilities clustered tightly around mid-September dates. Competitive pressure from OpenAI’s imminent Astra release adds uncertainty, while the market’s modest premium on September 17 reflects trader caution around potential last-minute delays or integration hurdles typical of frontier large language model launches.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання