Incumbent Democrat Josh Gottheimer's unopposed status in the June 2 Democratic primary for New Jersey's 5th Congressional District, combined with the district's D+2 partisan lean and his consistent general election margins above 54% since 2020, drives trader consensus toward an 81.5% implied probability of a Democratic hold. Recent filings through the March 23 deadline solidified this, as Republican Sean Kirrane secured all local party endorsements and advanced after rivals like John Aslanian withdrew amid signature challenges and Sandy Gajapathy failed to qualify. Cook Political rates the race Solid Democratic, reflecting weak GOP opposition in this battleground-leaning seat ahead of the November 3 general election.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNJ-05 House Election Winner
NJ-05 House Election Winner
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
81%
Republican Party
16%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
$316 Обс.
81%
Republican Party
$0 Обс.
16%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Josh Gottheimer's unopposed status in the June 2 Democratic primary for New Jersey's 5th Congressional District, combined with the district's D+2 partisan lean and his consistent general election margins above 54% since 2020, drives trader consensus toward an 81.5% implied probability of a Democratic hold. Recent filings through the March 23 deadline solidified this, as Republican Sean Kirrane secured all local party endorsements and advanced after rivals like John Aslanian withdrew amid signature challenges and Sandy Gajapathy failed to qualify. Cook Political rates the race Solid Democratic, reflecting weak GOP opposition in this battleground-leaning seat ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ET
Обсяг
$316Дата завершення
Nov 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Josh Gottheimer's unopposed status in the June 2 Democratic primary for New Jersey's 5th Congressional District, combined with the district's D+2 partisan lean and his consistent general election margins above 54% since 2020, drives trader consensus toward an 81.5% implied probability of a Democratic hold. Recent filings through the March 23 deadline solidified this, as Republican Sean Kirrane secured all local party endorsements and advanced after rivals like John Aslanian withdrew amid signature challenges and Sandy Gajapathy failed to qualify. Cook Political rates the race Solid Democratic, reflecting weak GOP opposition in this battleground-leaning seat ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$316Дата завершення
Nov 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Josh Gottheimer's unopposed status in the June 2 Democratic primary for New Jersey's 5th Congressional District, combined with the district's D+2 partisan lean and his consistent general election margins above 54% since 2020, drives trader consensus toward an 81.5% implied probability of a Democratic hold. Recent filings through the March 23 deadline solidified this, as Republican Sean Kirrane secured all local party endorsements and advanced after rivals like John Aslanian withdrew amid signature challenges and Sandy Gajapathy failed to qualify. Cook Political rates the race Solid Democratic, reflecting weak GOP opposition in this battleground-leaning seat ahead of the November 3 general election.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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