OPEC maintains operational continuity through regular meetings of core members including Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iraq, which continue coordinating production quotas and reviewing 2027 baselines despite the UAE's May 2026 exit and disruptions from the Iran conflict. Traders assign a 96.8% probability against dissolution because the organization has adapted to prior membership changes while preserving its institutional framework and shared interest in managing global oil supply. Individual quota disputes, such as Iraq's earlier concerns, have not escalated to collective withdrawal. Realistic shifts could still emerge from additional major exits or a breakdown in the broader OPEC+ cooperation ahead of new quota negotiations, though such outcomes would require coordinated action by leading producers that current evidence does not indicate.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено3% шанс
$36,499 Обс.
$36,499 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
3% шанс
$36,499 Обс.
$36,499 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC maintains operational continuity through regular meetings of core members including Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iraq, which continue coordinating production quotas and reviewing 2027 baselines despite the UAE's May 2026 exit and disruptions from the Iran conflict. Traders assign a 96.8% probability against dissolution because the organization has adapted to prior membership changes while preserving its institutional framework and shared interest in managing global oil supply. Individual quota disputes, such as Iraq's earlier concerns, have not escalated to collective withdrawal. Realistic shifts could still emerge from additional major exits or a breakdown in the broader OPEC+ cooperation ahead of new quota negotiations, though such outcomes would require coordinated action by leading producers that current evidence does not indicate.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
Обсяг
$36,499Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC maintains operational continuity through regular meetings of core members including Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iraq, which continue coordinating production quotas and reviewing 2027 baselines despite the UAE's May 2026 exit and disruptions from the Iran conflict. Traders assign a 96.8% probability against dissolution because the organization has adapted to prior membership changes while preserving its institutional framework and shared interest in managing global oil supply. Individual quota disputes, such as Iraq's earlier concerns, have not escalated to collective withdrawal. Realistic shifts could still emerge from additional major exits or a breakdown in the broader OPEC+ cooperation ahead of new quota negotiations, though such outcomes would require coordinated action by leading producers that current evidence does not indicate.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$36,499Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...OPEC maintains operational continuity through regular meetings of core members including Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iraq, which continue coordinating production quotas and reviewing 2027 baselines despite the UAE's May 2026 exit and disruptions from the Iran conflict. Traders assign a 96.8% probability against dissolution because the organization has adapted to prior membership changes while preserving its institutional framework and shared interest in managing global oil supply. Individual quota disputes, such as Iraq's earlier concerns, have not escalated to collective withdrawal. Realistic shifts could still emerge from additional major exits or a breakdown in the broader OPEC+ cooperation ahead of new quota negotiations, though such outcomes would require coordinated action by leading producers that current evidence does not indicate.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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