Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mere 9% implied probability of OPEC dissolving in 2026, reflecting strong conviction in the cartel's endurance despite the United Arab Emirates' shock announcement on April 28 to exit effective May 1, stripping OPEC of its third-largest producer and significant spare capacity. This move weakens quota enforcement amid Iran war disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz and recent OPEC+ production adjustments—like the April 5 hike of 206,000 barrels per day—yet Saudi Arabia's dominant output and historical precedents of member departures (e.g., Angola, Qatar) sustain cohesion. Realistic challenges include cascading exits if oil prices falter below $60 per barrel or geopolitical rifts deepen, with the next OPEC+ meeting as a key monitor for unity.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоOPEC dissolves in 2026?
OPEC dissolves in 2026?
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 31, 2026
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mere 9% implied probability of OPEC dissolving in 2026, reflecting strong conviction in the cartel's endurance despite the United Arab Emirates' shock announcement on April 28 to exit effective May 1, stripping OPEC of its third-largest producer and significant spare capacity. This move weakens quota enforcement amid Iran war disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz and recent OPEC+ production adjustments—like the April 5 hike of 206,000 barrels per day—yet Saudi Arabia's dominant output and historical precedents of member departures (e.g., Angola, Qatar) sustain cohesion. Realistic challenges include cascading exits if oil prices falter below $60 per barrel or geopolitical rifts deepen, with the next OPEC+ meeting as a key monitor for unity.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
Обсяг
$1,922Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mere 9% implied probability of OPEC dissolving in 2026, reflecting strong conviction in the cartel's endurance despite the United Arab Emirates' shock announcement on April 28 to exit effective May 1, stripping OPEC of its third-largest producer and significant spare capacity. This move weakens quota enforcement amid Iran war disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz and recent OPEC+ production adjustments—like the April 5 hike of 206,000 barrels per day—yet Saudi Arabia's dominant output and historical precedents of member departures (e.g., Angola, Qatar) sustain cohesion. Realistic challenges include cascading exits if oil prices falter below $60 per barrel or geopolitical rifts deepen, with the next OPEC+ meeting as a key monitor for unity.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$1,922Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mere 9% implied probability of OPEC dissolving in 2026, reflecting strong conviction in the cartel's endurance despite the United Arab Emirates' shock announcement on April 28 to exit effective May 1, stripping OPEC of its third-largest producer and significant spare capacity. This move weakens quota enforcement amid Iran war disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz and recent OPEC+ production adjustments—like the April 5 hike of 206,000 barrels per day—yet Saudi Arabia's dominant output and historical precedents of member departures (e.g., Angola, Qatar) sustain cohesion. Realistic challenges include cascading exits if oil prices falter below $60 per barrel or geopolitical rifts deepen, with the next OPEC+ meeting as a key monitor for unity.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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