Recent developments center on the UAE's May 2026 departure, which highlighted quota frustrations and capacity expansion goals but has not triggered immediate follow-on exits. Iraq floated quota-related withdrawal threats in June amid war-related export disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, yet its oil ministry quickly clarified that it intends to remain in OPEC and seek higher allowances instead. Venezuela faces ongoing speculation tied to post-Maduro political shifts and potential U.S. energy deals, but analysts describe any exit as structurally possible rather than imminent given current low production levels. OPEC+ members continue monthly reviews and 2027 baseline discussions without reported new departures, supporting trader consensus that another country is unlikely to leave before year-end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWill another country leave OPEC in 2026?
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
37% шанс
$177,339 Обс.
$177,339 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
37% шанс
$177,339 Обс.
$177,339 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent developments center on the UAE's May 2026 departure, which highlighted quota frustrations and capacity expansion goals but has not triggered immediate follow-on exits. Iraq floated quota-related withdrawal threats in June amid war-related export disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, yet its oil ministry quickly clarified that it intends to remain in OPEC and seek higher allowances instead. Venezuela faces ongoing speculation tied to post-Maduro political shifts and potential U.S. energy deals, but analysts describe any exit as structurally possible rather than imminent given current low production levels. OPEC+ members continue monthly reviews and 2027 baseline discussions without reported new departures, supporting trader consensus that another country is unlikely to leave before year-end.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
Обсяг
$177,339Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent developments center on the UAE's May 2026 departure, which highlighted quota frustrations and capacity expansion goals but has not triggered immediate follow-on exits. Iraq floated quota-related withdrawal threats in June amid war-related export disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, yet its oil ministry quickly clarified that it intends to remain in OPEC and seek higher allowances instead. Venezuela faces ongoing speculation tied to post-Maduro political shifts and potential U.S. energy deals, but analysts describe any exit as structurally possible rather than imminent given current low production levels. OPEC+ members continue monthly reviews and 2027 baseline discussions without reported new departures, supporting trader consensus that another country is unlikely to leave before year-end.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Обсяг
$177,339Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Recent developments center on the UAE's May 2026 departure, which highlighted quota frustrations and capacity expansion goals but has not triggered immediate follow-on exits. Iraq floated quota-related withdrawal threats in June amid war-related export disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, yet its oil ministry quickly clarified that it intends to remain in OPEC and seek higher allowances instead. Venezuela faces ongoing speculation tied to post-Maduro political shifts and potential U.S. energy deals, but analysts describe any exit as structurally possible rather than imminent given current low production levels. OPEC+ members continue monthly reviews and 2027 baseline discussions without reported new departures, supporting trader consensus that another country is unlikely to leave before year-end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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