Google leads trader consensus at 35.5% implied probability for second-best AI lab by end-November 2026, driven by its rapid September cadence of Gemini 3.8 Flash and Live models that emphasize speed, context handling, and enterprise integration alongside DeepMind's scale. Meta at 25% benefits from Muse Spark 1.3's developer-friendly API and coding gains, while Alibaba and Anthropic trail on price-performance and safety-focused enterprise traction respectively. Recent benchmarks show Claude Fable 5.1 and GPT-6 Astra trading top spots, with Chinese labs like Moonshot closing capability gaps at lower cost. Key swing factors include sustained release momentum, revenue run-rates, and any major safety or regulatory shifts before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоSecond-best AI Lab end of November?
Second-best AI Lab end of November?
Google 36%
Meta 25%
Anthropic 16%
Alibaba 15.9%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 30, 2026
36%
Meta
25%
Anthropic
16%
Alibaba
12%
OpenAI
7%
Moonshot
5%
SpaceXAI
5%
Baidu
3%
Z.ai
3%
Xiaomi
1%
DeepSeek
1%
ByteDance
1%
Thinky
1%
Meituan
1%
StepFun
1%
Nvidia
1%
MiniMax
1%
Mistral
1%
Microsoft
1%
Amazon
1%
Tencent
1%
Google 36%
Meta 25%
Anthropic 16%
Alibaba 15.9%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 30, 2026
$2,078 Обс.
36%
Meta
$916 Обс.
25%
Anthropic
$636 Обс.
16%
Alibaba
$200 Обс.
12%
OpenAI
$192 Обс.
7%
Moonshot
$286 Обс.
5%
SpaceXAI
$187 Обс.
5%
Baidu
$187 Обс.
3%
Z.ai
$187 Обс.
3%
Xiaomi
$187 Обс.
1%
DeepSeek
$176 Обс.
1%
ByteDance
$197 Обс.
1%
Thinky
$187 Обс.
1%
Meituan
$187 Обс.
1%
StepFun
$176 Обс.
1%
Nvidia
$187 Обс.
1%
MiniMax
$187 Обс.
1%
Mistral
$176 Обс.
1%
Microsoft
$176 Обс.
1%
Amazon
$186 Обс.
1%
Tencent
$196 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google leads trader consensus at 35.5% implied probability for second-best AI lab by end-November 2026, driven by its rapid September cadence of Gemini 3.8 Flash and Live models that emphasize speed, context handling, and enterprise integration alongside DeepMind's scale. Meta at 25% benefits from Muse Spark 1.3's developer-friendly API and coding gains, while Alibaba and Anthropic trail on price-performance and safety-focused enterprise traction respectively. Recent benchmarks show Claude Fable 5.1 and GPT-6 Astra trading top spots, with Chinese labs like Moonshot closing capability gaps at lower cost. Key swing factors include sustained release momentum, revenue run-rates, and any major safety or regulatory shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Ринок відкрито: Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Обсяг
$7,090Дата завершення
Dec 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google leads trader consensus at 35.5% implied probability for second-best AI lab by end-November 2026, driven by its rapid September cadence of Gemini 3.8 Flash and Live models that emphasize speed, context handling, and enterprise integration alongside DeepMind's scale. Meta at 25% benefits from Muse Spark 1.3's developer-friendly API and coding gains, while Alibaba and Anthropic trail on price-performance and safety-focused enterprise traction respectively. Recent benchmarks show Claude Fable 5.1 and GPT-6 Astra trading top spots, with Chinese labs like Moonshot closing capability gaps at lower cost. Key swing factors include sustained release momentum, revenue run-rates, and any major safety or regulatory shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Обсяг
$7,090Дата завершення
Dec 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Google leads trader consensus at 35.5% implied probability for second-best AI lab by end-November 2026, driven by its rapid September cadence of Gemini 3.8 Flash and Live models that emphasize speed, context handling, and enterprise integration alongside DeepMind's scale. Meta at 25% benefits from Muse Spark 1.3's developer-friendly API and coding gains, while Alibaba and Anthropic trail on price-performance and safety-focused enterprise traction respectively. Recent benchmarks show Claude Fable 5.1 and GPT-6 Astra trading top spots, with Chinese labs like Moonshot closing capability gaps at lower cost. Key swing factors include sustained release momentum, revenue run-rates, and any major safety or regulatory shifts before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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