Both OpenAI and Anthropic have reported accelerating AI-assisted development that traders view as incremental steps toward recursive self-improvement, though neither claims full autonomous successor-building yet. Anthropic’s September update showed Claude leading 26% of R&D tasks end-to-end under supervision, following its June disclosure that the model authored over 80% of merged code by May 2026 and powered research agents recovering 97% of benchmark gaps. OpenAI’s early September announcement of an automated research intern delivering 3.1 agent-workdays per human workday, plus GPT-5.6 Sol’s autonomous post-training of a smaller model on an internal RSI Index, has reinforced perceptions of rapid internal progress. CEO statements from both labs, including Dario Amodei’s mid-September call for coordinated pacing, underscore safety risks and the gap between current capabilities and true RSI, shaping trader focus on near-term milestones like OpenAI’s March 2028 researcher goal.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоOpenAI or Anthropic announces recursive self-improvement by...?
OpenAI or Anthropic announces recursive self-improvement by...?
НОВЕ
Oct 31, 2026
October 31, 2026
10%
December 31, 2026
16%
$534 Обс.
October 31, 2026
$272 Обс.
10%
December 31, 2026
$262 Обс.
16%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or Anthropic, or an official representative of either company, announces that the company has achieved recursive self-improvement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Both OpenAI and Anthropic have reported accelerating AI-assisted development that traders view as incremental steps toward recursive self-improvement, though neither claims full autonomous successor-building yet. Anthropic’s September update showed Claude leading 26% of R&D tasks end-to-end under supervision, following its June disclosure that the model authored over 80% of merged code by May 2026 and powered research agents recovering 97% of benchmark gaps. OpenAI’s early September announcement of an automated research intern delivering 3.1 agent-workdays per human workday, plus GPT-5.6 Sol’s autonomous post-training of a smaller model on an internal RSI Index, has reinforced perceptions of rapid internal progress. CEO statements from both labs, including Dario Amodei’s mid-September call for coordinated pacing, underscore safety risks and the gap between current capabilities and true RSI, shaping trader focus on near-term milestones like OpenAI’s March 2028 researcher goal.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or Anthropic, or an official representative of either company, announces that the company has achieved recursive self-improvement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 18, 2026, 7:59 PM ET
Обсяг
$534Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2028Ринок відкрито
Sep 18, 2026, 7:59 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or Anthropic, or an official representative of either company, announces that the company has achieved recursive self-improvement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Both OpenAI and Anthropic have reported accelerating AI-assisted development that traders view as incremental steps toward recursive self-improvement, though neither claims full autonomous successor-building yet. Anthropic’s September update showed Claude leading 26% of R&D tasks end-to-end under supervision, following its June disclosure that the model authored over 80% of merged code by May 2026 and powered research agents recovering 97% of benchmark gaps. OpenAI’s early September announcement of an automated research intern delivering 3.1 agent-workdays per human workday, plus GPT-5.6 Sol’s autonomous post-training of a smaller model on an internal RSI Index, has reinforced perceptions of rapid internal progress. CEO statements from both labs, including Dario Amodei’s mid-September call for coordinated pacing, underscore safety risks and the gap between current capabilities and true RSI, shaping trader focus on near-term milestones like OpenAI’s March 2028 researcher goal.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or Anthropic, or an official representative of either company, announces that the company has achieved recursive self-improvement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$534Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2028Ринок відкрито
Sep 18, 2026, 7:59 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Both OpenAI and Anthropic have reported accelerating AI-assisted development that traders view as incremental steps toward recursive self-improvement, though neither claims full autonomous successor-building yet. Anthropic’s September update showed Claude leading 26% of R&D tasks end-to-end under supervision, following its June disclosure that the model authored over 80% of merged code by May 2026 and powered research agents recovering 97% of benchmark gaps. OpenAI’s early September announcement of an automated research intern delivering 3.1 agent-workdays per human workday, plus GPT-5.6 Sol’s autonomous post-training of a smaller model on an internal RSI Index, has reinforced perceptions of rapid internal progress. CEO statements from both labs, including Dario Amodei’s mid-September call for coordinated pacing, underscore safety risks and the gap between current capabilities and true RSI, shaping trader focus on near-term milestones like OpenAI’s March 2028 researcher goal.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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