**No US ally is positioned to acquire nuclear weapons by the end of 2026, supporting the 94.6% trader consensus against it.** South Korea and Japan continue to reaffirm commitments to the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and NPT obligations, while pursuing long-term conventional enhancements such as nuclear-powered submarines under IAEA Article 14 consultations that target mid-2030s deployment. Public debates and polling in Seoul and Tokyo reflect security concerns over North Korea, yet strategic elites and governments show no active programs or timelines for indigenous weapons development. US extended deterrence discussions and a proposed Saudi civil nuclear cooperation agreement focus on reactors and burden-sharing rather than weapon transfers or proliferation pathways. Significant barriers—including treaty commitments, sanctions risks, alliance pressures, and multi-year technical requirements—make breakout before 2027 highly improbable absent unforeseen escalations.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено5% шанс
$212,871 Обс.
$212,871 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
5% шанс
$212,871 Обс.
$212,871 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
**No US ally is positioned to acquire nuclear weapons by the end of 2026, supporting the 94.6% trader consensus against it.** South Korea and Japan continue to reaffirm commitments to the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and NPT obligations, while pursuing long-term conventional enhancements such as nuclear-powered submarines under IAEA Article 14 consultations that target mid-2030s deployment. Public debates and polling in Seoul and Tokyo reflect security concerns over North Korea, yet strategic elites and governments show no active programs or timelines for indigenous weapons development. US extended deterrence discussions and a proposed Saudi civil nuclear cooperation agreement focus on reactors and burden-sharing rather than weapon transfers or proliferation pathways. Significant barriers—including treaty commitments, sanctions risks, alliance pressures, and multi-year technical requirements—make breakout before 2027 highly improbable absent unforeseen escalations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Ринок відкрито: Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
Обсяг
$212,871Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
**No US ally is positioned to acquire nuclear weapons by the end of 2026, supporting the 94.6% trader consensus against it.** South Korea and Japan continue to reaffirm commitments to the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and NPT obligations, while pursuing long-term conventional enhancements such as nuclear-powered submarines under IAEA Article 14 consultations that target mid-2030s deployment. Public debates and polling in Seoul and Tokyo reflect security concerns over North Korea, yet strategic elites and governments show no active programs or timelines for indigenous weapons development. US extended deterrence discussions and a proposed Saudi civil nuclear cooperation agreement focus on reactors and burden-sharing rather than weapon transfers or proliferation pathways. Significant barriers—including treaty commitments, sanctions risks, alliance pressures, and multi-year technical requirements—make breakout before 2027 highly improbable absent unforeseen escalations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Обсяг
$212,871Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...**No US ally is positioned to acquire nuclear weapons by the end of 2026, supporting the 94.6% trader consensus against it.** South Korea and Japan continue to reaffirm commitments to the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and NPT obligations, while pursuing long-term conventional enhancements such as nuclear-powered submarines under IAEA Article 14 consultations that target mid-2030s deployment. Public debates and polling in Seoul and Tokyo reflect security concerns over North Korea, yet strategic elites and governments show no active programs or timelines for indigenous weapons development. US extended deterrence discussions and a proposed Saudi civil nuclear cooperation agreement focus on reactors and burden-sharing rather than weapon transfers or proliferation pathways. Significant barriers—including treaty commitments, sanctions risks, alliance pressures, and multi-year technical requirements—make breakout before 2027 highly improbable absent unforeseen escalations.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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