Trader consensus reflects an 87.5% implied probability of no US ally acquiring nuclear weapons before 2027, driven by the absence of any confirmed proliferation steps among potential candidates like South Korea, Japan, and Saudi Arabia despite heightened regional tensions. Recent public debates in South Korea and Japan over independent nuclear capabilities—spurred by North Korean missile tests and Chinese military buildup—intensified as of mid-April 2026, yet both nations remain committed to the US nuclear umbrella and Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) obligations, with no legislative or executive actions to pursue weapons programs. A February US-Saudi civil nuclear deal advanced toward congressional review in March, allowing limited uranium enrichment for power but imposing safeguards against military use amid lawmaker pushback. Significant technical, diplomatic, and political barriers, including extended deterrence commitments, sustain the strong "No" positioning absent late-breaking escalations.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоНОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 31, 2026
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Trader consensus reflects an 87.5% implied probability of no US ally acquiring nuclear weapons before 2027, driven by the absence of any confirmed proliferation steps among potential candidates like South Korea, Japan, and Saudi Arabia despite heightened regional tensions. Recent public debates in South Korea and Japan over independent nuclear capabilities—spurred by North Korean missile tests and Chinese military buildup—intensified as of mid-April 2026, yet both nations remain committed to the US nuclear umbrella and Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) obligations, with no legislative or executive actions to pursue weapons programs. A February US-Saudi civil nuclear deal advanced toward congressional review in March, allowing limited uranium enrichment for power but imposing safeguards against military use amid lawmaker pushback. Significant technical, diplomatic, and political barriers, including extended deterrence commitments, sustain the strong "No" positioning absent late-breaking escalations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Ринок відкрито: Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
Обсяг
$6,178Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Trader consensus reflects an 87.5% implied probability of no US ally acquiring nuclear weapons before 2027, driven by the absence of any confirmed proliferation steps among potential candidates like South Korea, Japan, and Saudi Arabia despite heightened regional tensions. Recent public debates in South Korea and Japan over independent nuclear capabilities—spurred by North Korean missile tests and Chinese military buildup—intensified as of mid-April 2026, yet both nations remain committed to the US nuclear umbrella and Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) obligations, with no legislative or executive actions to pursue weapons programs. A February US-Saudi civil nuclear deal advanced toward congressional review in March, allowing limited uranium enrichment for power but imposing safeguards against military use amid lawmaker pushback. Significant technical, diplomatic, and political barriers, including extended deterrence commitments, sustain the strong "No" positioning absent late-breaking escalations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Обсяг
$6,178Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 87.5% implied probability of no US ally acquiring nuclear weapons before 2027, driven by the absence of any confirmed proliferation steps among potential candidates like South Korea, Japan, and Saudi Arabia despite heightened regional tensions. Recent public debates in South Korea and Japan over independent nuclear capabilities—spurred by North Korean missile tests and Chinese military buildup—intensified as of mid-April 2026, yet both nations remain committed to the US nuclear umbrella and Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) obligations, with no legislative or executive actions to pursue weapons programs. A February US-Saudi civil nuclear deal advanced toward congressional review in March, allowing limited uranium enrichment for power but imposing safeguards against military use amid lawmaker pushback. Significant technical, diplomatic, and political barriers, including extended deterrence commitments, sustain the strong "No" positioning absent late-breaking escalations.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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