**Emmanuel Macron has shown no recent intention to convene a nationwide referendum before the end of 2026, sustaining trader consensus around a 94% probability against it.** His administration has consistently favored parliamentary legislation and negotiations with social partners over direct popular votes on issues such as pension reform, even as the possibility was floated in late 2025. Ongoing government instability—including multiple prime ministerial changes since the 2024 snap elections—combined with a crowded pre-electoral calendar ahead of the 2027 presidential contest, has directed focus toward legislative and budgetary measures rather than constitutional Article 11 or 89 referendum procedures. No official announcements, scheduled initiatives, or triggering legislative deadlocks have emerged in 2026 to shift this positioning, leaving the implied probability anchored in Macron’s established institutional preferences and the absence of immediate catalysts.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено6% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 30, 2026
6% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron convenes the electorate for a nationwide referendum between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Emmanuel Macron has shown no recent intention to convene a nationwide referendum before the end of 2026, sustaining trader consensus around a 94% probability against it.**
His administration has consistently favored parliamentary legislation and negotiations with social partners over direct popular votes on issues such as pension reform, even as the possibility was floated in late 2025. Ongoing government instability—including multiple prime ministerial changes since the 2024 snap elections—combined with a crowded pre-electoral calendar ahead of the 2027 presidential contest, has directed focus toward legislative and budgetary measures rather than constitutional Article 11 or 89 referendum procedures. No official announcements, scheduled initiatives, or triggering legislative deadlocks have emerged in 2026 to shift this positioning, leaving the implied probability anchored in Macron’s established institutional preferences and the absence of immediate catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron convenes the electorate for a nationwide referendum between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 21, 2026, 2:12 PM ET
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 21, 2026, 2:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron convenes the electorate for a nationwide referendum between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Emmanuel Macron has shown no recent intention to convene a nationwide referendum before the end of 2026, sustaining trader consensus around a 94% probability against it.**
His administration has consistently favored parliamentary legislation and negotiations with social partners over direct popular votes on issues such as pension reform, even as the possibility was floated in late 2025. Ongoing government instability—including multiple prime ministerial changes since the 2024 snap elections—combined with a crowded pre-electoral calendar ahead of the 2027 presidential contest, has directed focus toward legislative and budgetary measures rather than constitutional Article 11 or 89 referendum procedures. No official announcements, scheduled initiatives, or triggering legislative deadlocks have emerged in 2026 to shift this positioning, leaving the implied probability anchored in Macron’s established institutional preferences and the absence of immediate catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron convenes the electorate for a nationwide referendum between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 21, 2026, 2:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Emmanuel Macron has shown no recent intention to convene a nationwide referendum before the end of 2026, sustaining trader consensus around a 94% probability against it.** His administration has consistently favored parliamentary legislation and negotiations with social partners over direct popular votes on issues such as pension reform, even as the possibility was floated in late 2025. Ongoing government instability—including multiple prime ministerial changes since the 2024 snap elections—combined with a crowded pre-electoral calendar ahead of the 2027 presidential contest, has directed focus toward legislative and budgetary measures rather than constitutional Article 11 or 89 referendum procedures. No official announcements, scheduled initiatives, or triggering legislative deadlocks have emerged in 2026 to shift this positioning, leaving the implied probability anchored in Macron’s established institutional preferences and the absence of immediate catalysts.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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