Ongoing US-Iran hostilities since February 2026 have featured repeated air and missile strikes, naval blockades, and responses centered on degrading Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure along the Strait of Hormuz, rather than preparations for a large-scale ground invasion. Recent August 2026 developments include stalled Omani-mediated talks on new maritime routes, expiration of the June MOU deadline without a comprehensive deal, renewed sanctions pressure, and mutual demands over sanctions relief and waterway access, with both sides signaling continued use of diplomatic, economic, and targeted military tools. Military assessments highlight the high troop requirements, logistical risks, and Iranian ground-force scale that make a full invasion unlikely in the near term, while US statements emphasize air power, sanctions, and pressure to achieve objectives without committing to occupation. These factors underpin trader consensus around an 83.5% probability that no US invasion occurs before 2027.