Recent milestones like OpenAI and DeepMind models hitting the 35/42 gold threshold on 2025 IMO problems have lifted expectations, yet traders assign 70.5% odds to “No” for 2026 because year-to-year problem difficulty varies widely and benchmark scores often fail to translate under official contest rules—fixed time windows, no human intervention, and official grading. Frontier large language models may plateau on truly novel olympiad challenges despite rapid iteration, while competitive releases from labs such as Anthropic, xAI, and Chinese teams remain the main swing factors ahead of any July resolution. Market-implied odds reflect real-capital skepticism that consistent, contest-grade performance will arrive this year.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật29% khả năng
MỚI
MỚI
Dec 31, 2026
29% khả năng
MỚI
MỚI
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".Recent milestones like OpenAI and DeepMind models hitting the 35/42 gold threshold on 2025 IMO problems have lifted expectations, yet traders assign 70.5% odds to “No” for 2026 because year-to-year problem difficulty varies widely and benchmark scores often fail to translate under official contest rules—fixed time windows, no human intervention, and official grading. Frontier large language models may plateau on truly novel olympiad challenges despite rapid iteration, while competitive releases from labs such as Anthropic, xAI, and Chinese teams remain the main swing factors ahead of any July resolution. Market-implied odds reflect real-capital skepticism that consistent, contest-grade performance will arrive this year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Thị trường mở: Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ET
Khối lượng
$9,346Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".Recent milestones like OpenAI and DeepMind models hitting the 35/42 gold threshold on 2025 IMO problems have lifted expectations, yet traders assign 70.5% odds to “No” for 2026 because year-to-year problem difficulty varies widely and benchmark scores often fail to translate under official contest rules—fixed time windows, no human intervention, and official grading. Frontier large language models may plateau on truly novel olympiad challenges despite rapid iteration, while competitive releases from labs such as Anthropic, xAI, and Chinese teams remain the main swing factors ahead of any July resolution. Market-implied odds reflect real-capital skepticism that consistent, contest-grade performance will arrive this year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Khối lượng
$9,346Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent milestones like OpenAI and DeepMind models hitting the 35/42 gold threshold on 2025 IMO problems have lifted expectations, yet traders assign 70.5% odds to “No” for 2026 because year-to-year problem difficulty varies widely and benchmark scores often fail to translate under official contest rules—fixed time windows, no human intervention, and official grading. Frontier large language models may plateau on truly novel olympiad challenges despite rapid iteration, while competitive releases from labs such as Anthropic, xAI, and Chinese teams remain the main swing factors ahead of any July resolution. Market-implied odds reflect real-capital skepticism that consistent, contest-grade performance will arrive this year.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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