**Trader consensus on "No" at 95.6% for any STF justice impeachment before 2027 reflects entrenched procedural and institutional barriers.** The Senate holds 109 pending requests, concentrated on Justice Alexandre de Moraes amid the Banco Master scandal, yet President Davi Alcolumbre has declined to advance them. A 2025 Gilmar Mendes ruling further narrowed the path by limiting filings to the Prosecutor General and requiring a two-thirds Senate supermajority (54 votes). No STF justice has ever been removed via impeachment in Brazil's democratic history, and the full process—committee review, multiple floor votes, and defense—demands months that are unavailable before the January 2027 resolution window closes. Opposition proposals to bypass the Senate president or impose deadlines face resistance and would still confront the same supermajority threshold ahead of the October 2026 elections. Realistic shifts remain limited to a post-election Senate realignment enabling rapid rule changes and a PGR referral, though both face steep constitutional and political hurdles in the remaining timeframe.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật4% khả năng
$91,769 KL.
$91,769 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
4% khả năng
$91,769 KL.
$91,769 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus on "No" at 95.6% for any STF justice impeachment before 2027 reflects entrenched procedural and institutional barriers.** The Senate holds 109 pending requests, concentrated on Justice Alexandre de Moraes amid the Banco Master scandal, yet President Davi Alcolumbre has declined to advance them. A 2025 Gilmar Mendes ruling further narrowed the path by limiting filings to the Prosecutor General and requiring a two-thirds Senate supermajority (54 votes). No STF justice has ever been removed via impeachment in Brazil's democratic history, and the full process—committee review, multiple floor votes, and defense—demands months that are unavailable before the January 2027 resolution window closes. Opposition proposals to bypass the Senate president or impose deadlines face resistance and would still confront the same supermajority threshold ahead of the October 2026 elections.
Realistic shifts remain limited to a post-election Senate realignment enabling rapid rule changes and a PGR referral, though both face steep constitutional and political hurdles in the remaining timeframe.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ET
Khối lượng
$91,769Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus on "No" at 95.6% for any STF justice impeachment before 2027 reflects entrenched procedural and institutional barriers.** The Senate holds 109 pending requests, concentrated on Justice Alexandre de Moraes amid the Banco Master scandal, yet President Davi Alcolumbre has declined to advance them. A 2025 Gilmar Mendes ruling further narrowed the path by limiting filings to the Prosecutor General and requiring a two-thirds Senate supermajority (54 votes). No STF justice has ever been removed via impeachment in Brazil's democratic history, and the full process—committee review, multiple floor votes, and defense—demands months that are unavailable before the January 2027 resolution window closes. Opposition proposals to bypass the Senate president or impose deadlines face resistance and would still confront the same supermajority threshold ahead of the October 2026 elections.
Realistic shifts remain limited to a post-election Senate realignment enabling rapid rule changes and a PGR referral, though both face steep constitutional and political hurdles in the remaining timeframe.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$91,769Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus on "No" at 95.6% for any STF justice impeachment before 2027 reflects entrenched procedural and institutional barriers.** The Senate holds 109 pending requests, concentrated on Justice Alexandre de Moraes amid the Banco Master scandal, yet President Davi Alcolumbre has declined to advance them. A 2025 Gilmar Mendes ruling further narrowed the path by limiting filings to the Prosecutor General and requiring a two-thirds Senate supermajority (54 votes). No STF justice has ever been removed via impeachment in Brazil's democratic history, and the full process—committee review, multiple floor votes, and defense—demands months that are unavailable before the January 2027 resolution window closes. Opposition proposals to bypass the Senate president or impose deadlines face resistance and would still confront the same supermajority threshold ahead of the October 2026 elections. Realistic shifts remain limited to a post-election Senate realignment enabling rapid rule changes and a PGR referral, though both face steep constitutional and political hurdles in the remaining timeframe.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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