Diplomatic tensions between the United States and Brazil have centered on reciprocal visa restrictions, stalled ambassadorial agrément for the U.S. nominee, and trade disputes rather than outright expulsions of diplomats. The Trump administration revoked the Brazilian ambassador’s visa in August without requiring departure, explicitly framing it as reversible upon resolution, while subsequent friction has involved police attaché postings and law enforcement cooperation. With negotiations continuing and a G20 ministerial meeting scheduled for late September, traders see little basis for a sudden expulsion order before the September 30 deadline. A rapid breakdown in talks or an unanticipated incident could still shift the narrow remaining window, though current patterns favor de-escalation through existing channels.