Mary Peltola’s January 2026 entry into the Alaska U.S. Senate race against incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan has established her as the market frontrunner, supported by record first-quarter fundraising of nearly $9 million—more than four times Sullivan’s haul—and consistent Alaska Survey Research polls showing her ahead by 5–7 points. Alaska’s nonpartisan top-four primary on August 18 followed by ranked-choice voting in the November general election introduces added complexity that traders factor into the current 58.5 percent implied probability for Peltola and 41.5 percent for Sullivan. The recent qualification of a second candidate named Dan Sullivan on the primary ballot has raised incumbent concerns over potential voter confusion, further shaping trader assessments of the competitive contest.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtAlaska Senate Election Winner
Alaska Senate Election Winner
Mary Peltola 59%
Dan Sullivan 42%
Dustin Darden <1%
Ann Diener <1%
$335,385 KL.
$335,385 KL.
Mary Peltola
59%
Dan Sullivan
42%
Dustin Darden
<1%
Ann Diener
<1%
Richard Grayson
<1%
Mary Peltola 59%
Dan Sullivan 42%
Dustin Darden <1%
Ann Diener <1%
$335,385 KL.
$335,385 KL.
Mary Peltola
59%
Dan Sullivan
42%
Dustin Darden
<1%
Ann Diener
<1%
Richard Grayson
<1%
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Thị trường mở: Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Mary Peltola’s January 2026 entry into the Alaska U.S. Senate race against incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan has established her as the market frontrunner, supported by record first-quarter fundraising of nearly $9 million—more than four times Sullivan’s haul—and consistent Alaska Survey Research polls showing her ahead by 5–7 points. Alaska’s nonpartisan top-four primary on August 18 followed by ranked-choice voting in the November general election introduces added complexity that traders factor into the current 58.5 percent implied probability for Peltola and 41.5 percent for Sullivan. The recent qualification of a second candidate named Dan Sullivan on the primary ballot has raised incumbent concerns over potential voter confusion, further shaping trader assessments of the competitive contest.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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