Market consensus from the Central Bank of Brazil’s Focus survey holds steady at 5.02% for 2026 IPCA, aligning with Copom projections near 5.1% and driving Polymarket’s heaviest positioning on the 5.00-5.49% bracket at 47%. Recent monthly and mid-month readings have moderated into the 4.2-4.4% year-over-year range amid favorable seasonality and temporary electricity tariff relief, yet medium-term expectations remain anchored above the 3% target plus tolerance band due to El Niño-driven food price pressures, elevated energy costs from Middle East supply risks, and resilient services inflation. Fiscal stimulus and a modestly positive output gap sustain upside risks, while gradual Selic easing toward 13.75% by year-end reflects the bank’s data-dependent path amid slower GDP growth forecasts near 1.95%.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật5.00-5.49% 47.0%
4.50-4.99% 27.7%
5.50-5.99% 22.4%
4.00-4.49% 3.3%
$100,222 KL.
$100,222 KL.
Jan 11, 2027
<3.00%
<1%
3.00-3.49%
<1%
3.50-3.99%
<1%
4.00-4.49%
3%
4.50-4.99%
28%
5.00-5.49%
47%
5.50-5.99%
22%
6.00-6.49%
1%
6.50-6.99%
<1%
7.00%+
<1%
5.00-5.49% 47.0%
4.50-4.99% 27.7%
5.50-5.99% 22.4%
4.00-4.49% 3.3%
$100,222 KL.
$100,222 KL.
Jan 11, 2027
<3.00%
$5,844 KL.
<1%
3.00-3.49%
$5,904 KL.
<1%
3.50-3.99%
$13,307 KL.
<1%
4.00-4.49%
$14,405 KL.
3%
4.50-4.99%
$16,917 KL.
28%
5.00-5.49%
$14,894 KL.
47%
5.50-5.99%
$10,450 KL.
22%
6.00-6.49%
$6,785 KL.
1%
6.50-6.99%
$6,801 KL.
<1%
7.00%+
$4,917 KL.
<1%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlMarket consensus from the Central Bank of Brazil’s Focus survey holds steady at 5.02% for 2026 IPCA, aligning with Copom projections near 5.1% and driving Polymarket’s heaviest positioning on the 5.00-5.49% bracket at 47%. Recent monthly and mid-month readings have moderated into the 4.2-4.4% year-over-year range amid favorable seasonality and temporary electricity tariff relief, yet medium-term expectations remain anchored above the 3% target plus tolerance band due to El Niño-driven food price pressures, elevated energy costs from Middle East supply risks, and resilient services inflation. Fiscal stimulus and a modestly positive output gap sustain upside risks, while gradual Selic easing toward 13.75% by year-end reflects the bank’s data-dependent path amid slower GDP growth forecasts near 1.95%.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Thị trường mở: Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Khối lượng
$100,222Ngày kết thúc
Jan 12, 2027Thị trường mở
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlMarket consensus from the Central Bank of Brazil’s Focus survey holds steady at 5.02% for 2026 IPCA, aligning with Copom projections near 5.1% and driving Polymarket’s heaviest positioning on the 5.00-5.49% bracket at 47%. Recent monthly and mid-month readings have moderated into the 4.2-4.4% year-over-year range amid favorable seasonality and temporary electricity tariff relief, yet medium-term expectations remain anchored above the 3% target plus tolerance band due to El Niño-driven food price pressures, elevated energy costs from Middle East supply risks, and resilient services inflation. Fiscal stimulus and a modestly positive output gap sustain upside risks, while gradual Selic easing toward 13.75% by year-end reflects the bank’s data-dependent path amid slower GDP growth forecasts near 1.95%.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Khối lượng
$100,222Ngày kết thúc
Jan 12, 2027Thị trường mở
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...Market consensus from the Central Bank of Brazil’s Focus survey holds steady at 5.02% for 2026 IPCA, aligning with Copom projections near 5.1% and driving Polymarket’s heaviest positioning on the 5.00-5.49% bracket at 47%. Recent monthly and mid-month readings have moderated into the 4.2-4.4% year-over-year range amid favorable seasonality and temporary electricity tariff relief, yet medium-term expectations remain anchored above the 3% target plus tolerance band due to El Niño-driven food price pressures, elevated energy costs from Middle East supply risks, and resilient services inflation. Fiscal stimulus and a modestly positive output gap sustain upside risks, while gradual Selic easing toward 13.75% by year-end reflects the bank’s data-dependent path amid slower GDP growth forecasts near 1.95%.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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