Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 70% implied probability that the CDC will not issue any Level 4 "Avoid All Travel" Travel Health Notice by December 31, 2026, driven by the absence of such advisories since early 2026 despite ongoing outbreaks. Level 4 notices, reserved for destinations with extreme health risks and no effective precautions—like uncontrollable transmission of life-threatening diseases—have not been triggered, as recent Level 2 "Practice Enhanced Precautions" updates for meningococcal disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (March 24), yellow fever in Venezuela (March 16), global polio (March 9), and clade II monkeypox in Ghana and Liberia (January 26) indicate manageable epidemiological threats per CDC surveillance. No escalations have occurred amid 19 U.S. measles outbreaks and global dengue updates (April 16), underscoring the high bar for Level 4 activation; traders anticipate continued stability barring a novel, rapidly spreading pathogen, with weekly CDC reports as key upcoming data points.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtCDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?
CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?
$70,268 KL.
$70,268 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
$70,268 KL.
$70,268 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 70% implied probability that the CDC will not issue any Level 4 "Avoid All Travel" Travel Health Notice by December 31, 2026, driven by the absence of such advisories since early 2026 despite ongoing outbreaks. Level 4 notices, reserved for destinations with extreme health risks and no effective precautions—like uncontrollable transmission of life-threatening diseases—have not been triggered, as recent Level 2 "Practice Enhanced Precautions" updates for meningococcal disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (March 24), yellow fever in Venezuela (March 16), global polio (March 9), and clade II monkeypox in Ghana and Liberia (January 26) indicate manageable epidemiological threats per CDC surveillance. No escalations have occurred amid 19 U.S. measles outbreaks and global dengue updates (April 16), underscoring the high bar for Level 4 activation; traders anticipate continued stability barring a novel, rapidly spreading pathogen, with weekly CDC reports as key upcoming data points.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Thị trường mở: Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ET
Khối lượng
$70,268Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 70% implied probability that the CDC will not issue any Level 4 "Avoid All Travel" Travel Health Notice by December 31, 2026, driven by the absence of such advisories since early 2026 despite ongoing outbreaks. Level 4 notices, reserved for destinations with extreme health risks and no effective precautions—like uncontrollable transmission of life-threatening diseases—have not been triggered, as recent Level 2 "Practice Enhanced Precautions" updates for meningococcal disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (March 24), yellow fever in Venezuela (March 16), global polio (March 9), and clade II monkeypox in Ghana and Liberia (January 26) indicate manageable epidemiological threats per CDC surveillance. No escalations have occurred amid 19 U.S. measles outbreaks and global dengue updates (April 16), underscoring the high bar for Level 4 activation; traders anticipate continued stability barring a novel, rapidly spreading pathogen, with weekly CDC reports as key upcoming data points.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Khối lượng
$70,268Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 70% implied probability that the CDC will not issue any Level 4 "Avoid All Travel" Travel Health Notice by December 31, 2026, driven by the absence of such advisories since early 2026 despite ongoing outbreaks. Level 4 notices, reserved for destinations with extreme health risks and no effective precautions—like uncontrollable transmission of life-threatening diseases—have not been triggered, as recent Level 2 "Practice Enhanced Precautions" updates for meningococcal disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (March 24), yellow fever in Venezuela (March 16), global polio (March 9), and clade II monkeypox in Ghana and Liberia (January 26) indicate manageable epidemiological threats per CDC surveillance. No escalations have occurred amid 19 U.S. measles outbreaks and global dengue updates (April 16), underscoring the high bar for Level 4 activation; traders anticipate continued stability barring a novel, rapidly spreading pathogen, with weekly CDC reports as key upcoming data points.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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