Recent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF, UK Met Office, and Polish IMGW indicate a daytime high near 25°C in Warsaw on August 9 under partly cloudy skies and light winds, positioning this outcome as the market leader at 48.5% implied probability. Model consensus shows limited spread around 24–26°C, with 26°C at 28.5% reflecting minor warming potential from reduced cloud cover. These probabilities align with climatological norms for early August and current synoptic patterns that favor stable, moderate conditions rather than extremes. Updated model runs overnight have narrowed uncertainty, supporting trader focus on these central values ahead of final observations.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 9?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 9?
25°C 48%
26°C 28%
24°C 15%
27°C 5%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 9, 2026
21°C or below
1%
22°C
1%
23°C
3%
24°C
15%
25°C
48%
26°C
28%
27°C
5%
28°C
2%
29°C
1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
25°C 48%
26°C 28%
24°C 15%
27°C 5%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 9, 2026
21°C or below
$435 KL.
1%
22°C
$747 KL.
1%
23°C
$232 KL.
3%
24°C
$960 KL.
15%
25°C
$842 KL.
48%
26°C
$305 KL.
28%
27°C
$153 KL.
5%
28°C
$357 KL.
2%
29°C
$175 KL.
1%
30°C
$182 KL.
<1%
31°C or higher
$242 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF, UK Met Office, and Polish IMGW indicate a daytime high near 25°C in Warsaw on August 9 under partly cloudy skies and light winds, positioning this outcome as the market leader at 48.5% implied probability. Model consensus shows limited spread around 24–26°C, with 26°C at 28.5% reflecting minor warming potential from reduced cloud cover. These probabilities align with climatological norms for early August and current synoptic patterns that favor stable, moderate conditions rather than extremes. Updated model runs overnight have narrowed uncertainty, supporting trader focus on these central values ahead of final observations.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Aug 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Khối lượng
$4,631Ngày kết thúc
Aug 9, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF, UK Met Office, and Polish IMGW indicate a daytime high near 25°C in Warsaw on August 9 under partly cloudy skies and light winds, positioning this outcome as the market leader at 48.5% implied probability. Model consensus shows limited spread around 24–26°C, with 26°C at 28.5% reflecting minor warming potential from reduced cloud cover. These probabilities align with climatological norms for early August and current synoptic patterns that favor stable, moderate conditions rather than extremes. Updated model runs overnight have narrowed uncertainty, supporting trader focus on these central values ahead of final observations.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$4,631Ngày kết thúc
Aug 9, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF, UK Met Office, and Polish IMGW indicate a daytime high near 25°C in Warsaw on August 9 under partly cloudy skies and light winds, positioning this outcome as the market leader at 48.5% implied probability. Model consensus shows limited spread around 24–26°C, with 26°C at 28.5% reflecting minor warming potential from reduced cloud cover. These probabilities align with climatological norms for early August and current synoptic patterns that favor stable, moderate conditions rather than extremes. Updated model runs overnight have narrowed uncertainty, supporting trader focus on these central values ahead of final observations.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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