Democratic House primaries in 2026 have already produced an unusually high number of incumbent defeats, with seven losses recorded by mid-August amid ongoing contests. Progressive challengers backed by groups including the Democratic Socialists of America and figures such as New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani have ousted establishment members in New York (Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat), Michigan (Shri Thanedar), Colorado (Diana DeGette), Texas (Julie Johnson and Al Green after redistricting), and Connecticut (John Larson), often emphasizing generational turnover or policy differences on issues like foreign aid. These results exceed the postwar average of roughly 6–7 total House incumbent primary losses per cycle and have been driven by elevated challenger activity, redistricting effects in states such as Texas, and voter turnout favoring change. With multiple primaries still ahead, traders price the final total of Democratic House incumbents defeated at 10–12 as the most probable range, reflecting both confirmed upsets and the scope for a modest number of additional defeats without reaching historic extremes.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật10-12 57.0%
7-9 24.3%
13-15 11.2%
>15 3.1%
$25,139 KL.
$25,139 KL.
<3
<1%
4-6
<1%
7-9
24%
10-12
57%
13-15
11%
>15
3%
10-12 57.0%
7-9 24.3%
13-15 11.2%
>15 3.1%
$25,139 KL.
$25,139 KL.
<3
$1,106 KL.
<1%
4-6
$1,902 KL.
<1%
7-9
$11,735 KL.
24%
10-12
$5,606 KL.
57%
13-15
$2,279 KL.
11%
>15
$2,511 KL.
3%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Democratic House primaries in 2026 have already produced an unusually high number of incumbent defeats, with seven losses recorded by mid-August amid ongoing contests. Progressive challengers backed by groups including the Democratic Socialists of America and figures such as New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani have ousted establishment members in New York (Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat), Michigan (Shri Thanedar), Colorado (Diana DeGette), Texas (Julie Johnson and Al Green after redistricting), and Connecticut (John Larson), often emphasizing generational turnover or policy differences on issues like foreign aid. These results exceed the postwar average of roughly 6–7 total House incumbent primary losses per cycle and have been driven by elevated challenger activity, redistricting effects in states such as Texas, and voter turnout favoring change. With multiple primaries still ahead, traders price the final total of Democratic House incumbents defeated at 10–12 as the most probable range, reflecting both confirmed upsets and the scope for a modest number of additional defeats without reaching historic extremes.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Thị trường mở: Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ET
Khối lượng
$25,139Thị trường mở
Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Kết quả đề xuất: No
Không tranh chấp
Kết quả cuối cùng: No
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Democratic House primaries in 2026 have already produced an unusually high number of incumbent defeats, with seven losses recorded by mid-August amid ongoing contests. Progressive challengers backed by groups including the Democratic Socialists of America and figures such as New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani have ousted establishment members in New York (Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat), Michigan (Shri Thanedar), Colorado (Diana DeGette), Texas (Julie Johnson and Al Green after redistricting), and Connecticut (John Larson), often emphasizing generational turnover or policy differences on issues like foreign aid. These results exceed the postwar average of roughly 6–7 total House incumbent primary losses per cycle and have been driven by elevated challenger activity, redistricting effects in states such as Texas, and voter turnout favoring change. With multiple primaries still ahead, traders price the final total of Democratic House incumbents defeated at 10–12 as the most probable range, reflecting both confirmed upsets and the scope for a modest number of additional defeats without reaching historic extremes.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Khối lượng
$25,139Thị trường mở
Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Kết quả đề xuất: No
Không tranh chấp
Kết quả cuối cùng: No
Democratic House primaries in 2026 have already produced an unusually high number of incumbent defeats, with seven losses recorded by mid-August amid ongoing contests. Progressive challengers backed by groups including the Democratic Socialists of America and figures such as New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani have ousted establishment members in New York (Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat), Michigan (Shri Thanedar), Colorado (Diana DeGette), Texas (Julie Johnson and Al Green after redistricting), and Connecticut (John Larson), often emphasizing generational turnover or policy differences on issues like foreign aid. These results exceed the postwar average of roughly 6–7 total House incumbent primary losses per cycle and have been driven by elevated challenger activity, redistricting effects in states such as Texas, and voter turnout favoring change. With multiple primaries still ahead, traders price the final total of Democratic House incumbents defeated at 10–12 as the most probable range, reflecting both confirmed upsets and the scope for a modest number of additional defeats without reaching historic extremes.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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