Recent IAEA actions, including the September 10, 2026, Board of Governors referral of Iran to the UN Security Council for safeguards noncompliance—the first such step in two decades—highlight persistent verification gaps and restricted inspector access to key sites since the 2025 U.S.-Israeli strikes. Satellite imagery confirms ongoing construction and fortification at the underground Pickaxe Mountain complex near Natanz, where Iran appears to be relocating or hardening nuclear-related infrastructure after prior damage to enrichment facilities. While Iran retains a substantial stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 percent, international assessments indicate no active enrichment, weaponization activities, or confirmed breakout progress, with timelines pushed back by strikes and monitoring lapses. These developments, alongside Iran's reaffirmation of peaceful intent under existing understandings and risks of further international or unilateral responses, underpin trader expectations that acquisition of a nuclear weapon remains unlikely before the end of 2026.