Iran has repeatedly targeted commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz since the June 2026 memorandum of understanding broke down in July, seeking to enforce preferred transit routes and assert administrative control over the chokepoint. Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps forces have conducted missile, drone, and warning-shot operations against noncompliant tankers and bulk carriers, with multiple confirmed or claimed incidents in July and early-to-mid August 2026, including strikes on ADNOC-linked vessels and a Greek-owned carrier that resulted in a crew fatality. The United States has countered with naval enforcement of blockades, redirection of ships, and precision strikes on IRGC maritime and missile sites. Parallel Houthi threats and attacks in the Red Sea have compounded route disruptions. Iran-Oman talks on strait administration continue amid these actions, while broader US-Iran diplomatic channels remain strained. These recurring maritime confrontations and enforcement responses form the core drivers of trader assessments on the likelihood and timing of further successful Iranian targeting.