Recent model consensus from regional forecasts indicates Shanghai’s overnight low on August 25 will likely settle near 26–27 °C, reflecting the market’s leading outcomes. Persistent subtropical high pressure and elevated humidity have limited nocturnal radiative cooling across the Yangtze River Delta, keeping minimum temperatures close to the mid-August climatological average of 26–27 °C. Short-range guidance shows partly to mostly cloudy skies with light southerly flow and isolated showers, conditions that suppress further temperature drops. Updated runs through August 23 confirm no significant frontal passage or stronger northerly winds before the 25th that would allow a dip to 25 °C or below. Traders are therefore weighting the 27 °C and 26 °C bins most heavily, consistent with the narrow uncertainty band typical of 48-hour temperature forecasts in this season.